- Bitcoin mirrors global M2 with 89.6% correlation, signaling a likely surge to $120K or higher by the end of May amid rising liquidity.
- April’s BTC rally from $76K to $105K validates the M2 model, forecasting continued growth aligned with macro money supply trends.
- A potential breakout above $160K is expected around May 24 as sidelined investors react to BTC’s strong alignment with global liquidity.
Bitcoin continues to shadow the global M2 money supply, with strong signs pointing to a potential explosive move above $120,000 by late May. According to analysis by Colin Talks Crypto, Bitcoin is currently in sync with the global M2 curve — offset by 81 days — and may soon break into new all-time highs. This correlation, already proven in April, forecasts a substantial price rally driven by macroeconomic liquidity trends. On April 8, Bitcoin launched from $76,000 to $105,000, aligning perfectly with a turning point in M2. This move validated the M2-based prediction model and signaled renewed bullish momentum.
Strong Correlation Strengthens the Bull Case
The 81-day lag between Bitcoin and M2 shows a high correlation rate of 89.6%. Over longer spans like 1.5 years, this figure peaks at 92.9%. Even at 30 to 60 days, correlation levels remain above 87%, underlining the model’s robustness. These numbers suggest that Bitcoin’s price often follows global liquidity cycles with slight delays. Moreover, custom offsets like 182 days still show a meaningful 60.2% correlation. Hence, the pattern isn’t a coincidence but a recurring macroeconomic signal.
Source: Colin Talks Crypto
From late 2023 through March 2024, BTC and M2 moved almost in parallel. However, BTC outpaced M2 between April and August 2024. Then, from September to November 2024, BTC lagged behind, mirroring M2’s earlier path. During early 2025, BTC dipped while M2 rose, causing concern among investors. Still, April 2025 marked a key inflection point. The “BLAST-OFF” moment confirmed the return of alignment and bullish sentiment.
BTC Poised for Explosive Upside
Currently trading around $104,000, BTC could surge into the $160,000–$200,000 range if the M2 pattern holds. Additionally, a move is projected around May 24. The expected climb, outlined by a green channel, aligns with M2’s previous rise. Consequently, sidelined investors may rush in, triggering intense FOMO. This could fuel an accelerated breakout past previous highs.
Besides technical indicators, macro liquidity continues to expand globally. Moreover, the M2 curve suggests that Bitcoin remains in a broader uptrend. Hence, any pullback may be short-lived. The data-driven correlation points to one conclusion — Bitcoin’s bull run is far from over.
