- Whale inflows dropped after $2B in BTC transfers to Binance between October 12 and November 3.
- New whales face steep realized losses as Bitcoin trades below the $110.8K average cost basis.
- Market risk level returns to low as selling pressure fades and speculative activity remains subdued.
Over recent weeks, Bitcoin’s market activity has shown a noticeable cooling of selling pressure after a period of intense whale-driven inflows. The pattern of large Bitcoin holders moving assets to exchanges has changed, a potential shift in short-term market behavior.
Between mid-October and early November, whales had been actively transferring significant volumes of Bitcoin to Binance, creating considerable sell-side activity. However, this momentum has now slowed, suggesting a moderation in aggressive selling as the market seeks balance following a volatile period.
Whale Inflows Ease After Heavy Selling
Data from Darkfost indicated that from October 12 to November 3, whale addresses sent over 19,500 BTC to Binance. This movement represented approximately $2 billion in potential selling pressure over just a few weeks. Earlier in the year, whale inflows were largely irregular, but the trend changed in mid-October, showing a more sustained pattern of transactions.
Darkfost reported that whale inflows have cooled, pointing to a possible end of the most aggressive phase of selling. He emphasized that monitoring these entities remains crucial, as their activity can quickly influence market volatility during uncertain trading conditions.
New Whale Cohort Faces Increasing Losses
Data from CryptoQuant revealed that newer Bitcoin whales are under financial pressure as prices dip below their average cost basis. Since October 28, Bitcoin has consistently traded beneath the $110,800 mark, intensifying realized losses among this group. Between November 4 and November 8, new whales recorded daily realized losses ranging from $5.1 million to $515.1 million.
This continuous dip has created stress within this cohort, adding to the broader cautious sentiment in the market. The recent decline in selling intensity aligns with these losses, as many participants appear to be holding rather than realizing additional losses at lower price levels.
Market Risk Level Returns to Low Regime
SwissBlock reported that its “Risk-Off Signal” has shifted back to a low-risk regime, indicating easing selling pressure. The firm outlined two possible short-term outcomes: a recovery toward $108,500–$110,000 or a potential retest of the $100,000–$103,000 range.
At present, SwissBlock noted that momentum slightly favors a move toward recovery as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize. Meanwhile, Glassnode data showed that futures open interest remains muted following October’s leverage flush.
Derivatives activity has slowed significantly, reflecting a broader atmosphere of reduced speculation across the market. Together, these trends indicate that Bitcoin’s near-term dynamics are being driven more by stabilization than by new speculative build-up.
