- Bitcoin holds strong above $100K as spot volumes stay resilient while futures trading shows steady decline since May highs.
- Analyst sees 40% chance of an August or September altseason with Bitcoin possibly hitting $130K before sharp market correction.
- Market could face either a gradual buildup into late 2025 or a sudden compressed cycle triggering rapid volatility and sell-offs.
Bitcoin’s trading volumes are flashing mixed signals as the crypto market navigates a critical phase in August 2025. According to Glassnode, spot and futures volumes have both declined from mid-July peaks but remain above early-July lows.
With futures trading at $41.05 billion and spot trading at $6.61 billion, it appears that the market is still very active even though momentum is slowing. This change coincides with Bitcoin’s price consolidating between $100,000 and $115,000, suggesting that a significant move may be imminent.
Source: Glassnode
There are differences between spot and futures trading, according to the analysis. Spot volumes are still quite high when contrasted with futures, which have been declining since May. Additionally, Bitcoin’s tenacity around the psychological support of $100,000 boosts investor confidence.
Historical Echoes and Market Sentiment
Crypto analyst World War Bitcoin draws parallels to Q2 2021, when Bitcoin’s stagnation preceded an intense altcoin surge and a sharp market crash. Back then, market euphoria was extreme, and funding rates were dangerously high. Today’s sentiment is notably subdued, with less overleveraging, yet Bitcoin’s price behavior shows similar stubbornness.
He warns that the current setup could lead to a faster-than-expected peak in the altcoin market. In his view, there is now a 40% chance of an August or September “altseason” that could mirror past explosive runs. If this unfolds, Bitcoin could push to around $130,000 before altcoins rally dramatically, followed by a swift correction.
Possible Scenarios Ahead
Additionally, the market could either see a steady buildup into late 2025 or a compressed cycle that catches traders off guard. The latter would amplify risks as overly optimistic retail investors misinterpret the rally as the start of a prolonged bull run.
Hence, the next few weeks will be pivotal. Sustained spot demand could drive Bitcoin higher, supporting altcoin momentum. However, rapid gains without healthy consolidation may invite volatility similar to 2021’s post-peak crash.
