- Bitcoin breaks $105K with a bullish rally aiming for $163K in its fifth wave.
- Elliott Wave patterns confirm strong market structure for Bitcoin’s rise.
- Key levels at $65K and $43K offer strong support for Bitcoin’s ongoing surge.
The Bitcoin CME Futures chart has painted a compelling picture of the cryptocurrency’s bullish trajectory as it approaches the latter stages of an Elliott Wave cycle. As of January 2025, Bitcoin’s price has surged to $105,280, representing a dramatic 10.58% daily increase. The chart highlights a textbook five-wave pattern, with the fifth wave in progress, potentially driving BTC to unprecedented highs.
Over the summer of 2024, analysts, including the chart’s author, emphasized that Bitcoin’s upward momentum was far from over. Their primary reasoning hinged on Bitcoin “missing a fifth wave” in its cycle.
This claim has materialized into the current rally, much to the dismay of bearish traders who predicted doom for Bitcoin. Now, as BTC climbs toward a projected Fibonacci extension target of $163,460—calculated from the 1.618 level—market sentiment appears firmly bullish.
The Elliott Wave Progression: Breaking Down the Numbers
Bitcoin’s price movements since late 2023 have adhered to Elliott Wave Theory principles. The initial wave began around October 2023, where BTC started climbing from a base near $19,995. This first wave concluded with a peak, leading to a corrective second wave that briefly dipped below $30,000.
The third wave, typically the most powerful, saw BTC break through $50,000, ultimately reaching $89,525 by mid-2024. This was followed by a prolonged sideways corrective pattern in the fourth wave, characterized by a symmetrical triangle structure labeled as A-B-C-D-E.
The fifth and final wave kicked off late in 2024, propelling BTC past $100,000. Analysts have identified internal subwaves within this fifth wave, reflecting micro-level price action that supports the broader bullish narrative. Currently, BTC is consolidating near $105,280, with the fourth subwave completing. If the chart holds true, Bitcoin is poised to accelerate upward in the fifth sub wave, targeting the $120,000 to $163,460 range.
Fibonacci Levels and Technical Milestones
The chart’s use of Fibonacci retracement and extension tools adds further credibility to the bullish forecast. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension level aligns with the $163,460 price target, indicating a zone of strong potential resistance.
Historically, Bitcoin has respected Fibonacci levels during parabolic cycles, and the ongoing rally appears no different. Support levels from prior waves, such as $65,520 and $43,500, now serve as key safety nets for any potential pullbacks.
Moreover, the CME Futures chart shows a well-maintained bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows throughout the cycle. The 2024 consolidation phase, marked by the symmetrical triangle, provided a strong foundation for the current breakout. If BTC maintains its momentum, the psychological barrier of $150,000 could act as a magnet for traders, further reinforcing the Elliott Wave projection.
The Bigger Picture: Market Sentiment and What’s Next
Despite bearish skepticism, the chart reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s bull run is not yet over. The completion of the fifth wave could coincide with broader adoption, increased institutional interest, and a favorable macroeconomic environment. However, traders should remain cautious, as wave five often concludes with a sharp correction, marking the end of a cycle.
In the short term, Bitcoin’s ability to break and sustain above $105,280 will be crucial. The next few weeks could see increased volatility as BTC approaches its final wave targets. For now, the $163,460 level stands as a beacon of optimism for bulls, while bears are left rethinking their strategies.
DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
