- Bitcoin’s 30-day active supply dropped 17%, signaling slowed on-chain movement even as prices stay above $100K in mid-2025.
- A similar -17% drop in September 2024 preceded a major rally, highlighting the short-term supply activity shifts.
- Despite reduced short-term activity, long-term supply metrics show stable network growth and sustained market engagement.
Bitcoin’s active supply is slowing sharply, with the 30-day change indicator now reading -17%. This signals a drop in the number of coins moving on-chain. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., this metric shows whether more coins are being moved or held compared to a month ago. A -17% reading indicates fewer coins are changing hands, suggesting decreased blockchain activity. Historically, such values have marked key inflection points. Notably, a similar drop in September 2024 helped kickstart a major rally.
Besides, Bitcoin’s price continues to trade above $100,000 as of mid-2025. However, the slowdown in supply activity raises concerns about short-term market momentum. When fewer coins are active, it often points to hesitation among traders or strong holding patterns. This can either signal consolidation or a prelude to sharp price action. Hence, tracking this metric becomes essential for understanding Bitcoin’s market health.
Volatility Mirrors Supply Activity Shifts
Bitcoin’s price history shows a strong connection with changes in supply activity. In early 2021, Bitcoin surged from $10,000 to nearly $70,000. During this bull run, the active supply percentage rose. More coins were moving, reflecting high market engagement.
Source: Axel Adler Jr
However, by 2022, Bitcoin fell toward the $15,000–$20,000 range. Consequently, supply activity dropped, aligning with reduced investor participation. The 30-day moving average closely followed this downward price shift. Additionally, during sideways movement in early 2023, the supply metrics remained stable.
Renewed Rallies and Network Response
Bitcoin’s breakout in late 2023 reignited supply movement. Prices soared past $100,000 in 2024, setting new all-time highs. Moreover, during this phase, both short and long-term supply activity metrics rose in tandem with price.
However, even during rallies, there were periods of sharp negative changes in activity. The current -17% drop mirrors those corrections. Axel noted that this level of decline previously triggered a major bullish reversal. He joked, “Tell Elon to stop fighting the president—we’re supposed to rally.” Longer-term metrics like the 365-day change still show stable network growth. Hence, despite short-term slowdowns, broader participation remains strong.
