- Bitcoin trades near $95K as futures sentiment battles selling pressure from spot holders locking in profits around the STH realized price.
- Futures sentiment remains volatile, reacting sharply to price changes while struggling to regain strength seen during April’s early rally.
- BTC’s short-term range persists as strong support holds, but lacking catalysts and cautious traders keep the market directionless.
Bitcoin hovered around $95,100 as futures market sentiment struggled to regain bullish momentum last seen on April 21. Recent price action has remained confined within a $92,000 to $96,000 range. Despite gains earlier in the period, market participants are encountering resistance from spot holders locking in profits near the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price. This pressure continues to limit upside potential. Consequently, the futures market lacks the conviction needed to sustain further upward movement.
Sentiment Spikes Precede Price Surges
The BTC Futures Composite Sentiment Index, provided by CryptoQuant, highlights sharp shifts in market mood between April 20 and 29. Bitcoin started this phase around $85,000 before it embarked on a ferocious uptrend on April 22. In a span of 48 hours, the price shot up by almost $10,000 to an all-time high of $93,000. Sentiment measures skyrocketed on April 21 and April 22, in tandem with this stunning price appreciation. These spikes, highlighted in green lines and yellow colors, indicate increased bullish fervor from futures traders.
Source: Axel
However, these moments of optimism were short-lived. The sentiment indicator (purple line) frequently dropped into negative territory, revealing fragile confidence among participants. Despite these dips, recoveries followed quickly, suggesting heightened sensitivity to price changes. The futures market appears reactive rather than predictive, reflecting current conditions instead of projecting forward strength.
Stalled Momentum Despite Strong Support
Moreover, the 24-hour simple moving average played a key role in shaping short-term outlook. It briefly crossed above the spot price on April 23, indicating momentum. Yet, it remained below for most of the following days, pointing to hesitation in trend continuation. From April 24 onward, Bitcoin traded steadily between $94,000 and $96,000, showing resilience but lacking fresh catalysts.
Additionally, the final three days of the period showed heightened sentiment volatility despite price stability. This phase, marked by a red arrow, underscores tension between speculative futures positions and spot market selling. Traders remain uncertain as they weigh short-term gains against long-term conviction.
Hence, until the selling pressure from spot holders subsides, Bitcoin’s path higher may stay limited. However, if this overhang clears, futures sentiment could strengthen quickly, propelling BTC beyond its recent highs. CryptoQuant’s insights suggest that while the foundation for another rally is forming, conviction is not yet firmly in place.
