- Bitcoin’s SOPR surged 16% amid high profit-taking, reflecting a zone seen in less than 8% of trading days and signaling elevated risk.
- Rising SOPR and Bitcoin Dominance nearing resistance suggest potential market cooling as historical patterns hint at corrections ahead.
- Bitcoin Dominance completes a 7-wave corrective pattern near key Fib levels, signaling a likely reversal that may boost altcoin momentum.
Bitcoin markets are flashing high-risk signals as realized profits spike and dominance charts approach critical resistance. The Entity-Adjusted SOPR metric climbed sharply, registering a rare 16% increase in average profit per coin. Such levels have only appeared on fewer than 8% of all trading days. Additionally, realized profits surged past $500 million per hour on three separate occasions within 24 hours. These developments place Bitcoin in a high-profit, high-risk zone, often preceding notable corrections in past cycles.
Source: Lucky
Besides profits rising, the SOPR readings confirm profit-taking activity. The SOPR index evaluates the ratio of profits to losses for spent outputs. When the reading stays above 1.0, it shows that coins move at a profit. However, values below 1.0 indicate capitulation and loss realization. This metric closely tracks market sentiment and investor psychology.
SOPR Indicates Elevated Risk Across Price Cycles
SOPR values peaked at 1.35 during past bull runs, including Bitcoin’s rally in early 2021 and again in late 2024. These spikes coincided with major price highs and intensified sell-offs. Conversely, when SOPR fell below 1.0 in 2022–2023, it marked accumulation zones. Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 during that period. However, since late 2023, SOPR rebounded above 1.0 as prices stabilized above $25,000. Hence, the recent rally beyond $100,000 in 2024 matches rising SOPR again.
Moreover, the SOPR line remains tightly correlated with Bitcoin price. Spikes in SOPR often precede pullbacks due to profit-taking pressure. The same pattern re-emerged recently, reinforcing its historical reliability. Currently, both metrics remain elevated, implying strong profit realization and a possible cooling phase ahead.
Bitcoin Dominance Completes Inverted Wave Pattern
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Dominance trades near 64.01% after completing a complex seven-wave corrective structure. The metric tapped the 0.786 Fibonacci level on the daily chart. This retracement often signals exhaustion of the prior move. Wave 7 suggests the end of the inverted crashing pattern, with momentum likely to reverse.
Source: Quantum Ascend
Moreover, a breakdown becomes likely if dominance dips below 63.45%. Real downside action starts under 62%. Resistance remains at 64.44% and 64.73%, while support lies at 62.81% and 61.95%. Additionally, market dominance trends directly influence altcoin capital flows. A reversal here could spark fresh altcoin moves.
