- Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew dropping to -6.1% signals rising bullish sentiment and fading demand for downside protection.
- Elliott Wave analysis points to wave (2) completion near $97K–$99K support, setting the stage for a potential wave (3) breakout.
- Persistent negative skew and price consolidation below $104K indicate cautious optimism and a strong setup for upside continuation.
Bitcoin is flashing strong bullish signals as technical and derivative indicators align for a potential breakout. According to options data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s 1-month 25 Delta Skew has dropped to -6.1%. This means call options now carry higher implied volatility than puts. Consequently, this shift suggests a rise in upside speculation and waning fear-driven demand for downside protection.
Besides options sentiment, technical analysis from XForceGlobal also supports the bullish case. The price has recently completed an impulsive five-wave move, peaking near $105,000. Since then, Bitcoin entered a corrective phase marked by an (A)-(B)-(C) pattern. However, this retracement aligns perfectly with a cluster support zone between $97,000 and $99,000. This region may mark the completion of wave (2), setting the stage for a powerful wave (3) expansion.
Skew Patterns Reveal Market Psychology
The 25 Delta Skew has shown repeated drops into the -4% to -9% range, marked in green zones. Historical patterns reveal that strong price rallies often follow sustained periods of negative skew. Notably, these green zones occurred during late 2024 and early 2025, just before major price surges. Hence, the current skew drop strengthens the probability of another breakout.
Source: Glassnode
Additionally, even during the early 2025 correction, the skew remained firmly negative. This behavior reflects persistent demand for protective puts. However, its current reversal toward call-side interest may be a turning point. Significantly, skew has not crossed into positive territory despite price recovery, suggesting cautious optimism among traders.
Technical Structure Favors Bullish Outlook
Wave theory analysis suggests Bitcoin may be forming a higher-degree 1-2 setup. Moreover, the wave (2) correction is unfolding within a predefined support zone. Price is consolidating just below $104,000, with reaction zones between $92,000 and $99,000. These are expected to trigger strong buying interest if tested.
Source: XForceGlobal
Furthermore, a “Protected Low” near $86,000 offers structural support. Price expansion targets lie above $106,000, potentially pushing toward $112,000, $120,000, and $128,000. If wave (2) ends successfully, a wave (3) impulse could deliver a sharp upside.
