- Bitcoin tests critical resistance near $94,392 as speculation grows around an extended fifth wave and a possible multi-year cycle shift.
- Charting_Guy’s Elliott Wave analysis shows bullish structures with potential targets at $103,616, $128,120, and $173,805 if momentum persists.
- Despite the rally, bearish divergence in oscillators signals caution as Bitcoin eyes a breakout above $95,000 to confirm further upside.
Bitcoin surged 10.87% on April 26, 2025, positioning itself at a crucial technical crossroads. Trading near $94,392, Bitcoin extended its impressive rally from the 2022 bottom. Besides, this strong move reignited debates around Bitcoin’s long-term Elliott Wave structure.
Charting_Guy’s analysis highlights the potential of an extended fifth wave, which could reshape Bitcoin’s current cycle expectations. Bitcoin’s price action now floats above the $90,000 psychological barrier. Consequently, the market watches closely for signs of either continuation or reversal.
The analysis from the TradingView platform presents two Elliott Wave counts. The primary purple count outlines a full five-wave cycle since the 2022 low. Moreover, the second green count focuses on shorter-term moves since early 2024. Both interpretations suggest Bitcoin remains within a major bullish structure, though key differences exist.
Potential Fibonacci Targets and Market Implications
Besides wave counts, Fibonacci targets are at $103,616, $128,120, and $173,805. Hence, traders look for possible breakout points if momentum continues. Additionally, Bitcoin maintains a long-term uptrend, anchored by a blue ascending trendline from 2021.
However, caution persists. The oscillator indicators at the bottom reveal a bearish divergence against Bitcoin’s rising price. Consequently, this divergence warns of possible weakness, especially if momentum fails to confirm new highs.
The green Elliott count shows Waves 1 to 3 complete, with Wave 4 forming a bullish triangle. Moreover, Bitcoin’s recent surge marks the potential start of a strong Wave 5. Surpassing $95,000 could open the door to the higher Fibonacci targets, provided bullish momentum holds.
Extended Cycles and Altcoin Season Possibilities
Charting_Guy speculates that if Bitcoin extends its fifth wave, it could validate a longer four-year cycle. Besides, this scenario might trigger a substantial altcoin season later in 2025. However, he notes this remains his most bullish forecast among several others. Moreover, alternative targets suggest a $109,000 double top or a rally toward $128,000 using the 1.414 Fibonacci extension. Hence, traders remain split between cautious optimism and aggressive bullish positioning.
