- Weekly RSI near 30 matches 2020 & 2022 bottoms that sparked rallies of 1,228% and 341%, targeting $110K-$130 recovery zone.
- BTC trades 13.3% below 200-day MA at $104.8, a historically attractive entry point with 24-hour volume surging 34% to $37.5B.
- Only 4-6 million BTC liquid supply, 12-13 million held long-term, taking price sensitivity to institutional demand.
Bitcoin’s recent decline from $128,000 has put the cryptocurrency in a very critical state, with analysts at Coin Bureau identifying key technical patterns that overcome major rallies.
The digital asset currently trades around $90,700, a 29% correction from recent highs, while weekly RSI readings are approaching oversold territory similar to previous market bottoms in 2020 and 2022.
Historical Patterns Point to Significant Upside
Coin Bureau’s analysis reveals a compelling pattern in Bitcoin’s weekly RSI movements. Notably, the indicator now hovers near 30, matching levels that triggered substantial rallies in previous cycles.
In 2020, there was a 1,228% decline, and in 2022, a 341% gain. Analysts expect a potential recovery toward $110,000 to $130,000 if historical trends repeat. The current market structure displays three major consolidation phases since 2020.
The 2020-2021 accumulation established support around $10,000 to $15,000 over 350 days. The 2023 base ranged from $25,000 to $30,000 over 50 days. These zones highlighted significant breakouts, suggesting similar dynamics may emerge from the current levels.
Moving Averages Signal Trend Transition
Technical data from Santiment shows Bitcoin trading below both critical moving averages. The 50-day moving average is at $98,000, while the 200-day average is at $104,800.
Bitcoin has seen a 13.3% discount to the 200-day average, putting it in an attractive value territory. Trading volume surged 33.97% to $37.52 billion in 24 hours, indicating heightened market activity at current price levels.
The volume-to-market-cap ratio reaches 2.07%, reflecting healthy liquidity without excessive speculation. However, Bitcoin’s $1.81 trillion market capitalization places it among the world’s top ten most valuable assets.
Only 1.05 million BTC remain unmined from the 21 million total supply, representing 5% future issuance spread over the next 115 years.
Supply Dynamics Support Long-Term Trajectory
Market fundamentals reveal strong scarcity supporting the price appreciation. Approximately 12 to 13 million BTC have remained unmoved for over one year, held by long-term investors.
The actual liquid supply available for trading is 4 to 6 million BTC. This supply constraint shows price sensitivity to demand increases, as the institutional adoption accelerates through spot ETF products and corporate treasury allocations.
