- Bitcoin’s current cycle may peak around August 2025, based on historic trend durations.
- A bullish chart pattern and SMA crossover suggest a long-term upward BTC price trajectory.
- ETF inflows and institutional demand continue fueling momentum toward a potential $1M BTC.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $104,853.38, and analysts say a new mega cycle may already be in progress. With strong technical formations, historical timing models, and growing institutional demand, Bitcoin’s roadmap may now be pointing toward $500,000 to $1 million by 2029–30.
Chart Structures Align for Long-Term Bullish Trend
Egrag Crypto, a crypto analyst noted that the current cycle shows a potential top forming around August 1, 2025. This estimate is based on the average of past bull market durations, which ranged from 244 to 426 days.
The current cycle may follow a similar pattern, placing its peak around that key date. The chart also shows a breakout from an inverse head and shoulders formation, which is often associated with long-term trend reversals.
Bitcoin has since retested the neckline of the pattern, confirming previous resistance as new support. Egrag notes that a bullish crossover between two major moving averages also supports this upward trajectory.
Macro Factors and Institutional Flows Fuel Momentum
According to analysts at Bitfinex, strong institutional interest and ETF inflows helped drive Bitcoin to $111,970 in May. Data from Farside shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $5.24 billion in net inflows during that month. Analysts say a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report could push Bitcoin even higher due to increased chances of rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the presence of large buyers like BlackRock and other treasury-focused companies continues to support demand. Over 600,000 BTC has reportedly been accumulated by major institutions over the past year, reflecting deep interest in long-term exposure.
As the macro environment shifts and technical signals strengthen, the current trajectory remains in line with earlier bull cycles. If Bitcoin continues following this pattern, the projected path from $105,000 to as high as $1 million is being viewed by analysts as a technically backed outcome.
