- Bitcoin’s price is now shaped by new whales who bought high and face huge unrealized losses.
- Whale deposits to exchanges signal more selling pressure and potential price drops ahead.
- Old whales hold steady profits, so short-term swings come from late buyers, not seasoned investors.
Bitcoin is entering a critical phase as control over its supply has shifted to new whales, signaling significant implications for the market. According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, “Market direction is now dictated by new whales. They hold the most realized capital, exhibit the highest turnover, and are the most emotionally and financially exposed to price volatility.”
For the first time in history, new whales—short-term holders controlling over 1,000 BTC with UTXO age under 155 days—own a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term “OG” whales. This transition highlights how the most influential market players have changed from experienced holders to recently entered capital chasing higher prices.
Realized Cap measures the total cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement. Hence, the metric shows that a large portion of Bitcoin has recently changed hands at elevated prices. Currently, the realized price of new whales sits near $98,000, while spot prices remain below that level.
Consequently, this cohort carries approximately $6 billion in unrealized losses, directly influencing their behavior. On-chain data shows these whales repeatedly sold into weakness and exited positions during short-lived rebounds, prioritizing risk management over conviction.
Binance Derivatives and Whale Activity Highlight Selling Pressure
On the other hand, Amr Taha reported increasing selling pressure from Binance derivatives and whale activity. Net Taker Volume, an indicator measuring buying and selling aggression, has been mostly negative since mid-January.
For instance, on January 20, the metric showed a sharp –$319 million, marking the second time it exceeded –$300 million. Previously, similar readings coincided with Bitcoin trading above $95,000, followed by a drop below $90,000.
Moreover, whale wallet activity on spot exchanges reinforces this pressure. On January 20, whale deposits exceeded $400 million, the second significant spike in recent days. The first, on January 15, involved $500 million and preceded a sharp BTC decline from $96,000. Historically, large deposits indicate potential selling or increased liquidity for distribution.
Additionally, old whales remain mostly in profit with realized prices around $40,000. Their activity is minor compared to new whales, indicating that short-term price dynamics are largely driven by financially stressed, late-entry holders. Hence, until these unrealized losses are absorbed, Bitcoin continues to operate in a distribution-dominated regime.
