- Long term holders realized nearly 3.27M BTC in profits this cycle, matching 2021 levels but at higher price points.
- Around 20,000 BTC worth $2.4B moved to exchanges in two weeks, raising concerns over increased market supply.
- Bitcoin sentiment hit its most negative since June as a weekly MACD death cross signaled potential downside risk.
Bitcoin’s ongoing market cycle is showing historic profit-taking activity from long-term holders, raising concerns about growing sell-side pressure. Data indicates that holders have already realized more profit in the current cycle than in almost every previous one.
Realized gains are nearing levels only surpassed during the 2017 to 2018 bull run, when profit taking hit new highs. This suggests that Bitcoin may be nearing a mature phase where selling activity could weigh more heavily on prices.
Distinct Profit Cycles Show Shifting Holder Behavior
A review of realized profit cycles highlights five distinct stages in Bitcoin’s history. During the first cycle in 2011, early holders took modest profits of about 500,000 BTC. By the second cycle of 2013–2014, realized profits expanded significantly, peaking close to 2.5 million BTC as early adoption accelerated.
The third cycle, spanning 2017–2018, saw a sharp increase in realized profits that reached 3.93 million BTC. This coincided with Bitcoin’s rally to nearly $20,000, marking the highest profit realization to date. In 2021, the fourth cycle recorded about 3.27 million BTC in realized gains, lower than cycle three, even though prices surpassed $60,000.
Current Cycle Nears Historic Profit Levels
In the ongoing fifth cycle, realized profits are already approaching 3.27 million BTC. This level matches the fourth cycle but is unfolding at much higher price levels. Notably, researchers highlight that diminishing profit peaks contrast with Bitcoin’s exponential price growth, suggesting fewer holders are selling aggressively.
This pattern points to a shift toward more sustained capital retention among long-term investors. At the same time, profit levels near historic peaks underline growing sell-side activity that often characterizes late phases of previous cycles.
Analysts Highlight Exchange Flows and Technical Risks
While realized profits climb, other market signals point to potential pressure ahead. According to analyst Ali, about 20,000 BTC worth $2.4 billion moved to exchanges in the last two weeks. Such transfers often precede selling activity, adding to concerns about increased supply in the market.
Additionally, sentiment around Bitcoin just dropped to its most negative level on social media since June. Alongside this, a death cross recently appeared on the weekly MACD, historically viewed as a warning of downside risk. Despite these warnings, Bitcoin has also broken out of its trading channel, with Ali identifying $106,000 and $100,000 as the next key targets.
