- Bitcoin stays resilient at $107K as MVRV at 0.6 and 83% STH Breadth show strong investor conviction and limited overvaluation signs.
- Macro data from 2022 to 2025 confirms Bitcoin’s bullish recovery cycle, with realized price and STH Breadth both steadily climbing.
- With most short-term holders in profit and MVRV neutral, the market may face brief corrections but retains bullish structural strength.
According to analyst Axel, Bitcoin shows strength, hovering near $107,100 with bullish support from on-chain indicators. The MVRV Z-score stands at 0.6, suggesting moderate valuation without signs of overheating. Meanwhile, Short-Term Holder (STH) Breadth is at 83%, indicating most recent buyers are in profit. This combination reflects growing confidence from investors, even as BTC remains range-bound between $104K and $110K. Importantly, market structure supports continued upside, though high profit margins could trigger temporary sell pressure near resistance.
Macro Cycle Data Validates Bull Market Momentum
Between July 2022 and April 2025, Bitcoin showed a clear recovery-to-rally cycle. Price action fell from $30K to $15K in late 2022, during which MVRV Z-score entered deep negative territory. STH Breadth dropped to 0%, signaling extreme capitulation. However, Bitcoin began recovering from $15K in late 2022. MVRV values returned to neutral levels, and STH Breadth started rising again.
2023 marked a strong rally. Bitcoin climbed from $20K to $45K, with MVRV readings staying above 0.6. STH Breadth peaked at over 75% multiple times, indicating renewed conviction. Although BTC consolidated between $25K and $45K mid-2023, realized price kept trending higher. MVRV fluctuated between -0.4 and 1.2, showing moderate corrections but no severe downturns.
Breakout to ATH and Current Market Setup
Bitcoin hit new highs in late 2023, breaking out toward $70K. STH Breadth approached 100%, and the MVRV Z-score exceeded 1.0. This demonstrated limited selling and a high bullish conviction. Bitcoin reached fresh all-time highs above $100,000 in 2024 and early 2025. This momentum was followed by the realized price, which increased to $47.4K.
Currently, the MVRV Z-score remains stable at 0.6. STH Breadth around 80% signals that most short-term participants still expect further gains. Consequently, the market remains in a bullish phase, though short-term corrections near $110K are possible.
Moreover, the green zone on historical MVRV charts signals potential buying opportunities. Conversely, the red zone warns of overvaluation and possible distribution. However, Bitcoin now trades in a balanced range—positioned between these extremes. Hence, continued accumulation remains a viable strategy unless sentiment shifts.
