- Rising OBV with price signals strong spot accumulation, not a futures-driven BTC rally.
- ETF inflows exceed $3.6B, while exchange supply drops to a six-year low, hinting at a squeeze.
- BTC trades near $96K as traders watch for a breakout from an ascending channel amid low leverage.
Bitcoin maintains its position above $96,000 following its peak at $97,838 during May 3. The upward move comes with rising volume, confirming a bullish OBV breakout. According to analysis prepared by CryptoQuant, this pattern indicates spot accumulation rather than a derivatives-led rally, similar to Q3 2024.
OBV and Volume Trends Indicate Strong Spot Buying
Bitcoin’s On-Balance Volume (OBV) has broken out alongside increasing price levels, a pattern that suggests accumulation in the spot market. This trend is viewed by traders as a key confirmation that buying interest is organic and not driven by leveraged futures positions.
According to an observation by analyst Ahsan via X, BTC is coiling inside an ascending channel and is currently trading below the 21-day moving average. The 50-day moving average is providing support near the channel’s lower trendline, suggesting that a breakout or breakdown may occur soon. The market remains on alert as volatility builds.
At the same time, futures data from Laevitas shows that the annualized two-month BTC futures premium remains neutral between 6% and 7%. This supports the idea that the rally is not being fueled by excessive leverage, making the current momentum more stable in the short term.
Institutional Demand Rises While Exchange Supply Declines
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen over $3.6 billion in net inflows over the past two weeks, according to SoSoValue. This inflow indicates strong institutional participation, though much of the positioning may be delta-neutral, balancing spot holdings with hedging strategies.
Meanwhile, Santiment data shows that Bitcoin supply on exchanges has dropped to 1.42 million, the lowest in more than six years. The supply held off exchanges has risen to 18.43 million, suggesting that investors are choosing to hold their assets instead of trading them. This supports the case for a supply squeeze, especially as demand continues to rise.
