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  • Bitcoin consolidates above $100K with SOPR at 1.02, signaling strong short-term holder profitability and sustained market confidence.
  • From 2023 to 2025, Bitcoin’s SOPR rise and price peak at $111.5K confirm robust cyclical recovery and controlled profit-taking pressure.
  • With trading range set between $101K and $112K, stable volume and SOPR above 1.0 suggest bullish momentum remains firmly intact.

With robust market support and limited profit-taking by short-term holders, Bitcoin consolidates over the $100,000 barrier. The most recent data from the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator, which analyst Axel provided on X, indicates that short-term holders are consistently making money. The 30-day moving average of SOPR is currently at 1.02, indicating a consistent positive outlook. Demand is still robust enough to maintain the upward trend in spite of recent turbulence.

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Source: Axel

Changes in holder behavior caused Bitcoin to show distinct cyclical trends between 2021 and 2025. Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to more over $60,000 in the first few months of 2021. A substantial realized profit for short-term investors was indicated by the SOPR of 1.08 during this run. But the market cooled by the middle of 2021, and prices fell to about $30,000. A steep decline in SOPR values indicated heightened sell pressure at losses.

Cyclical Behavior and Key Support Levels

The bear market of 2022 deepened this trend. Bitcoin traded between $15,000 and $25,000 as SOPR fell below 1.0 repeatedly. This marked consistent losses for short-term holders. However, from late 2022, the tide shifted. Bitcoin began recovering and reached $45,000 by the end of 2023. SOPR levels started rising again, with moving averages signaling improving profitability.

From late 2023 to mid-2025, Bitcoin entered a historic bull phase. Prices climbed past $100,000, peaking near $111,500 in May 2025. SOPR again touched 1.08, echoing earlier cycle highs. This confirmed widespread profit-taking but didn’t slow momentum. Bitcoin held strong even as corrections followed the May peak. Price briefly dipped below $102,000 before rebounding.

Trading Range and Volume Dynamics

The current market as per analyst Castillo Trading shows Bitcoin fluctuating within a defined range. It trades between a lower support of $101,000 and upper resistance at $112,000. The median line at $106,580 provides a critical reference point. Notably, the nPOC zone aligns with current price levels near $102,973.

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Source: Castillo Trading

Volume spikes during the rally and subsequent dip highlight increasing market engagement. The consolidation phase shows respect for well-established boundaries. Moreover, the SOPR trend and technical patterns support a bullish continuation. Consequently, as long as SOPR remains above 1.0, short-term holders are unlikely to trigger major selling pressure.

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