- BTC exchange reserves drop to 5-year low
- Stablecoin ratio signals strong upside potential
- Stochastic near oversold as BTC eyes $90K breakout
Bitcoin is oversold right now. With momentum cooling and technical signals flashing oversold conditions, analysts believe a massive bounce could be near. Market fundamentals remain strong, with institutional inflows, low exchange reserves, and stablecoin liquidity supporting the case for renewed upside. Bitcoin’s next move could be shaped by these key signals as traders look for a breakout.
On-Chain Metrics Show Strong Foundation Despite Price Pullback
According to a report by CryptoQuant analyst BorisVest, Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped to 2.43 million BTC—levels not seen since 2018. This decline from the 2021 peak of 3.4 million BTC suggests increased long-term holding and reduced supply for trading.
Reduced availability can lead to upward pressure on price if demand increases.Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), currently at 14.3, reflects high buying power in stablecoins relative to Bitcoin’s market cap.
A lower SSR means more capital is available to support price increases. The SSR has remained low, unlike previous cycles, which may indicate that substantial capital is waiting to re-enter the market under favorable conditions.
Technical and Derivatives Signals Support Oversold Bounce Scenario
According to an observation by Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, Bitcoin is now entering a range-bound phase. He expects BTC to trade between $73,000 and $94,000 in the coming weeks. Thielen adds that the current setup mirrors the early 2024 pattern, where price consolidation followed a strong rally.
Funding rates on Bitcoin derivatives have also returned to neutral, now ranging between 0.00% and 0.01%. This cooling trend signals that the market is balanced and no longer overheated. Technical tools like the Stochastic Oscillator are nearing oversold levels, which could trigger buying interest from short-term traders.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $83,700, marking a 32.8% gain year-on-year. With institutional flows continuing and the April halving approaching, the setup remains favorable. If demand returns and sentiment improves, a breakout above $90,000 could follow. Traders are closely watching this zone as the next potential move forms.
