- Bitcoin futures are cooling as whales pull back while retail traders now drive market momentum and shape short term sentiment.
- Active addresses are climbing again after last year’s collapse showing Bitcoin’s recovery journey from deep lows to fresh highs.
- Institutional selling still weighs on perpetual markets but steadier spot action shows cautious strength in the broader Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin’s futures market is undergoing a critical shift, raising concerns about market direction and sentiment. According to analysis by EgyhashX from CryptoQuant, whale activity has slowed, while retail traders now hold greater influence. This transition comes at a time when Bitcoin trades just above $111,000.
Futures Market Cools as Whale Activity Declines
Data shows a drop in participation from large futures traders. Average Order Size metrics reveal smaller transactions now dominate activity. Hence, retail influence has become more visible, overshadowing whales who traditionally drive futures markets. The Futures Volume Bubble Map also confirms reduced trading intensity, marking a cooling phase.
Additionally, the Bitcoin Futures Taker CVD indicates sellers hold stronger control. This sustained selling pressure reinforces bearish expectations and suggests traders anticipate further downside risk. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price may remain range-bound unless institutional players reenter with significant demand.
On-Chain Signals Show Mixed Recovery
Glassnode data further highlights fragile market stability. Active addresses dropped precipitously between October 2023 and mid-2024, reaching a low of about 25,000. By September 2025, however, the recovery had gotten stronger, with over 719,000 addresses. The price of bitcoin followed these trends, plummeting to $40,000 in 2024 before rising to levels above $120,000.
Moreover, options delta skew displayed extreme volatility. Spikes from positive 15 to negative 15 occurred during major price swings, signaling rapid shifts in sentiment. Current readings near 10 indicate bullish leanings, yet derivatives still reveal caution.
Perpetual CVD recorded severe drawdowns, dropping below -$2 billion during 2024 downturns. Although recovery pushed levels closer to neutral, the current figure at -186 million reflects persistent institutional selling. Conversely, spot CVD remained steadier, fluctuating within a narrower range, with the latest reading at -65 million showing balanced activity.
Bitcoin’s market landscape now reflects growing retail influence, cautious institutional behavior, and fragile on-chain recovery. Unless whales step back in force, sideways or bearish pressure may dominate near-term trends.
