- Bitcoin struggles near $64.7K as Coinbase Premium SMA-30 fails to hold above zero, signaling potential short-term downside.
- Long-term holders sit on 74% profit; BTC nearing $38.9K cost basis may trigger a capitulation phase.
- Weak premium and rising LTH cost basis highlight cautious market sentiment amid possible short-term volatility.
Bitcoin faces immediate pressure as market signals hint at potential downside, according to CryptoQuant analysts. On Monday, BTC trades near $64,700, yet the Coinbase Premium Index signals limited recovery. The index’s 30-minute simple moving average (SMA-30) briefly crossed above zero but failed to sustain momentum into the new week.
CryptoQuant analyst nino observed, “This lack of sustained recovery in the premium, despite the temporary uptick, is considered a potential trigger for the recent downward price action.”
The low Coinbase premium indicates that traders are being careful. However, aside from the temporary increase, the inability of the premium to remain above zero indicates that the demand for purchase might not be strong enough to cause prices to rise.
Hence, an investor might experience some pressure in the near future due to the market’s psychological state, which is likely to be risk-off. Analysts claim that the index can serve as an early warning system for market declines.
Long-Term Holder Trends Signal Risk
Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) may provide additional insight into Bitcoin’s trajectory. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, BTC is drifting toward the LTH pain point. He noted, “Looking at historical precedent, each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of ~20%.” Currently, LTHs sit on an average profit of roughly 74%, with the cost basis estimated near $38,900.
Additionally, this cost basis is not static. As short-term holders transition into long-term positions, the average acquisition price rises. Moreover, structural shifts in the market, such as institutional, corporate, and sovereign participation, could alter historical patterns. However, the risk of a capitulation phase remains a scenario worth monitoring.
Market Implications and Outlook
The convergence of a weak Coinbase Premium SMA-30 and approaching LTH cost basis highlights caution. Bitcoin could face temporary price volatility if selling pressure intensifies.
Investors should weigh market behavior carefully and consider both short-term signals and historical trends. Besides technical indicators, broader structural changes may affect outcomes. Hence, staying informed about market cohort behaviors remains critical.
