Bitcoin Faces Longest Post-Halving Bull Market in History, Analyst Warns  

• Peter Brandt predicts that the current Bitcoin bull market may become the longest in history before reaching a new all-time high.
• The veteran trader highlights that Bitcoin might not achieve a new ATH after the 2024 halving, breaking previous market patterns.
• Market dynamics, including recent Bitcoin price drops, add complexity to predicting future highs, per Brandt’s analysis.

Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt has voiced concerns over Bitcoin’s (BTC) future performance in its ongoing bull market cycle. Brandt, who has been trading since the 1970s, suggests that Bitcoin may experience its longest bull market period following a halving, delaying a new all-time high (ATH). His analysis is based on historical data, comparing the length of previous bull markets to the current one.

Historical Patterns and Current Market

According to Brandt, during the 2015-2017 bull market cycle, Bitcoin took 24 weeks to reach a new ATH. In the following cycle (2018-2021), it took 25 weeks. As for the ongoing bull market, which began in 2022, it has already reached 23 weeks without hitting a new ATH. This timeline suggests that Bitcoin’s current market may surpass previous records, potentially delaying the next peak.

New ATH Not Guaranteed

Brandt also warns that a new ATH may not be guaranteed. While historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically reaches new highs post-halving, Brandt points out that this trend might not hold for the current cycle. The trader shared a table on social media illustrating these timelines, emphasizing the uncertainty of the current market conditions.

Market Reactions and Recent Developments

Responses to Brandt’s analysis have been mixed. Some market observers agree that the current cycle may take longer to reach a new ATH, while others believe Bitcoin has already achieved its peak this year. Notably, Bitcoin hit a historic high of $73,750 on March 14, 2024, before the halving event on April 20. This early peak challenges the traditional pattern of post-halving ATHs.

Impact of External Factors

Bitcoin’s recent market movements have added complexity to these predictions. For instance, the sudden drop in BTC’s price on Tuesday, August 21, highlighted the volatility of the market. This decline was partly attributed to the significant transfer of BTC by the defunct exchange Mt. Gox, which moved nearly $710 million worth of Bitcoin to various exchanges as part of its compensation plan for creditors. This event caused a temporary drop in BTC’s value, further influencing market sentiment.