- Bitcoin fell below its SMA50 and AVWAP supports, signaling strong selling pressure and potential market weakness ahead.
- UTXOs in loss hit 27–30%, a decision zone where selling may either exhaust or push price lower.
- Historical bands and AVWAP levels remain crucial; buyers defending these could trigger a trend recovery.
Bitcoin is showing renewed signs of weakness as sellers dominate the market, raising fresh concerns for investors. According to CryptoQuant analyst _OnChain, “Currently, Bitcoin’s price has closed below the AVWAP anchored to the Fourth Halving (support), the SMA50, and the AVWAP anchored to the latest ATH, showing that sellers are dominating the market.”
This follows months of consolidation after the last halving, during which Bitcoin’s price compressed between the lower and upper bands of the AVWAP anchored to the Fourth Halving while remaining above a rising SMA50. Besides historical support, the Fourth Halving AVWAP acted as a key reference point.
OnChain explains that after the first major rally, bands expanded far from the original average price, leaving Bitcoin trading in the middle zone. There were four opportunities where the upper band highlighted potential market tops, while the SMA50 and original AVWAP offered buyers a defense zone.
However, after reaching the ATH, Bitcoin fell below the SMA50, used the Fourth Halving AVWAP as support briefly, and later failed to maintain upward momentum. Consequently, the 97K–100K range became a strong resistance area, forming the first lower high in the current trend.
Emerging Stress Patterns Resemble 2022 Downtrend
CryptoQuant analyst COINDREAM points out that Bitcoin is replaying a stress pattern similar to May 2022. “The UTXOs in Loss (%) metric has re-entered the 27–30% zone, signaling that a large share of market participants has shifted from profit into unrealized loss,” COINDREAM noted.
This range does not signal immediate bearishness but marks a decision zone for market pressure. When the metric surpasses 30% and holds, loss supply often leads to further downside. However, if it stalls in the 27–30% zone, selling pressure typically exhausts, paving the way for trend recovery.
Additionally, the interaction between UTXO Age Bands (6–12 months), SMA50, and AVWAP levels continues to guide market dynamics. OnChain highlights that these indicators have consistently identified support and resistance since the last halving. Hence, despite current weakness, the market may absorb selling pressure before a recovery, depending on how buyers defend these zones.
