- Bitcoin fell 15% last week, dipping below ETF cost basis, signaling near-term pressure for investors to watch.
- Supply gaps between $70K–$80K may guide Bitcoin’s next support levels as long-term holders slow selling.
- Weak performance versus gold and silver questions Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven hedge in current markets.
Bitcoin is showing signs of further decline, raising concerns among investors as the digital asset drifts closer to long-term support levels. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn warned that Bitcoin could slide toward the 200-week moving average near $58,000 over the coming weeks or months.
He noted that 46% of the total BTC supply is currently underwater, while a clear supply gap exists between $70,000 and $80,000. Additionally, Bitcoin has struggled to perform alongside gold and silver, weakening its case as a “debasement hedge.” Historically, the 200-week moving average and realized price near $56,000 have offered strong entry points for long-term investors.
The recent drop has been sharp. Between January 28 and January 31, Bitcoin fell 15%, with a single-day 10% move on Saturday triggering over $2 billion in long liquidations across futures platforms. BTCUSD touched as low as $75,644 on Coinbase, dipping below the average U.S. ETF cost basis of $84,000.
At one point, it even approached Strategy’s average cost basis of $76,037 and neared the one-year low of $74,420. These declines mark four consecutive red monthly candles, a streak not seen since 2018. Besides, historical trends show that BTC drawdowns of 40% from all-time highs often extend to 50% within three months.
Key Levels and Supply Gaps
As per the analysis, it has been observed that there exists a considerable supply gap between $70,000 and $80,000. This represents areas where the demand may be challenged. Moreover, the price realized stands at approximately $56,000, whereas the 200-week moving average stands at around $58,000.
This figure has traditionally been observed at the bottom of the market. Furthermore, profit-taking from long-term holders has slowed down considerably due to heavy distributions in 2024 and 2025, averaging $500 million per day. This represents increased confidence levels at current prices.
ETF inflows also illustrate investor sentiment. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen $54 billion in net inflows as of January 30, 2026, down 12.4% from their all-time peak. However, recent price action sent BTC below the average ETF cost basis, a level that could now act as short-term support. Additionally, Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and silver has challenged its narrative as a macro hedge, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
