- Bitcoin faces intense selling pressure as the composite index turns negative and $109.5K support becomes the last strong defense.
- Price swings from $62K to $130K highlight extreme volatility while mixed signals reveal uncertainty in Bitcoin’s broader market structure.
- A retest of $117.7K remains possible if Bitcoin holds $109.5K support, but failure risks deeper losses and renewed bearish momentum.
Bitcoin now trades at a critical point as technical indicators flash warning signs of bearish dominance. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the composite index has fallen below −0.4, a level that signals sellers hold control.
He explained, “The market structure has shifted, with the composite index falling below the −0.4 threshold, indicating bear dominance.” This aligns with Bitcoin’s current struggle around the lower boundary of the 21-day Donchian Channel.
Besides, Adler pointed to $109.5K as a decisive support zone. Holding this level remains essential for restoring bullish strength. He noted that regaining structure above zero could allow a retest of $117.7K. Hence, market participants are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can stabilize or extend losses.
Technical Indicators Show Mixed Phases
Bitcoin’s performance between October 2024 and September 2025 highlights frequent shifts in market structure. Price action began near $62,000 in October 2024 and rallied strongly, touching $100,000 by December.
The Structure Shift Composite Signal stayed mostly positive, confirming favorable conditions. Donchian Channel resistance tracked the surge, with upper boundaries moving higher as Bitcoin broke into new territory.
However, January 2025 introduced a notable correction. Prices dipped toward $85,000, while the composite index turned negative. Consequently, technical sentiment shifted bearish. February and March brought consolidation within $80,000 to $95,000 ranges. Moreover, narrowing Donchian Channels reflected reduced volatility during this phase.
Volatility Eased but Uncertainty Persists
Bearish momentum reappeared by April 2025. In May, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 and then reached lows close to $75,000. Structural signal values remained negative, indicating further weakness. Additionally, there were brief recoveries toward $90,000 during the summer, but selling pressure soon resumed.
Additionally, there was hesitation in July and August as the composite index fluctuated between positive and negative values. Bitcoin held at $113,000 at the end of September, but calmer trading was indicated by tighter Donchian Channel bounds.This signaled that volatility eased, but the market still lacked clear direction.
Bitcoin’s outlook hinges on $109.5K support. Holding it could reset bullish momentum, but losing it risks deeper correction toward new lows.
