- BTC Correlates 83% With Global Liquidity Trends
- $500B TGA Drawdown Adds Fuel to BTC Momentum
- Bullish Pennant Forms as BTC Eyes $86K Breakout
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade around $84,000, consolidating within a tight range while showing signs of building momentum. Analysts and traders now point to $86,000 as a critical resistance level. A strong daily close above that mark could trigger a major move to the upside.
$500B Liquidity Injection and Historical Correlation Boost Bullish Expectations
The U.S. Treasury has injected $500 billion into financial markets since February 2025 by drawing down its Treasury General Account (TGA), which supports government operations. The drawdown, which began after the $36 trillion debt ceiling was reached in January, has reduced the TGA balance from $842 billion to $342 billion.
Macroeconomic financial analyst Tomas stated that this liquidity release increased net Federal Reserve liquidity to $6.3 trillion. He added that the drawdown is likely to continue after the current tax season, possibly reaching $600 billion by late April. If debt ceiling talks extend into August, liquidity could peak at $6.6 trillion. Previous TGA drawdowns in 2022 and 2023 were followed by strong moves in speculative assets, including Bitcoin.
A study by Lyn Alden found that Bitcoin tracks global liquidity with 83% historical correlation over a 12-month period. The study labeled Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” showing a stronger connection to liquidity than gold or equities.
Technical Setup Shows Compression as Analysts Target Breakout Above $86K
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared a bullish pennant formation on the BTC daily chart. The pattern suggests that Bitcoin could break higher if it closes above $86,000. “A breakout above $88K could send it to $100K,” the trader wrote on X, referencing key resistance levels.
Bitcoin currently faces resistance from its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. A confirmed close above all three could strengthen the bullish trend. With strong support near $74,000, analysts say the price is showing compression and may be preparing for a breakout.
