- Bitcoin is tracking global M2 growth with precision, setting up for a possible breakout to $250K by year-end.
- As global liquidity rises and rate cuts loom, Bitcoin and altcoins are gaining momentum for a major second-half rally.
- Bitcoin mirrors money supply growth with a 12-week delay, and now trades near $180K as M2 tops $113 trillion.
According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin could hit $150,000 in Q3 and soar to $250,000 in Q4. This prediction aligns with a sharp rise in the global M2 money supply and growing expectations of interest rate cuts. Market data shows Bitcoin mirrors Global M2 with a 12-week lag. As M2 continues to climb, Bitcoin is catching up fast.
In early 2023, both Bitcoin and M2 began at low points. M2 hovered slightly above $100 trillion, while Bitcoin traded under $30,000. By mid-year, M2 rose to $103 trillion, and Bitcoin touched $35,000. The second half of 2023 saw a dip, with M2 falling to $101 trillion and Bitcoin also retracing.
Liquidity Rebound Powers Bitcoin’s Climb
Liquidity cleared by the end of 2023. Towards $106 trillion, M2 soared. The result was that Bitcoin started to rise again above $40,000. As 2024 rolled around, both signs shifted to the side. A range of $103 trillion to $106 trillion was maintained for M2. Price fluctuations for Bitcoin ranged from $35,000 to $45,000.
Source: Michael Van de Poppe
However, Bitcoin quickly followed M2’s breakout above $106 trillion in late 2024. Bitcoin, after trailing behind, jumped from less than $50,000 to more over $100,000. Bitcoin kept up with the precise movement as M2 increased.
2025: Strong Correlation and Bullish Outlook
In 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and M2 tightened further. M2 crossed $113 trillion, while Bitcoin approached $180,000. The current chart shows both metrics rising with minimal retracement. This confirms a relationship between monetary expansion and Bitcoin growth.
Additionally, macro signals support continued momentum. Volatility in Bitcoin remains low, usually a precursor to large directional moves. At the same time, expectations of interest rate cuts have increased. Hence, more liquidity may soon flood into risk assets, including crypto.
