- Bitcoin trades in a tight range, with $107K marked as the next key breakout confirmation level.
- A golden cross setup is forming, echoing a 62% rally seen after a similar pattern in late 2024.
- Whale selling and rising stablecoin reserves reflect short-term caution despite ETF-driven demand.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow range of $101,000 to $105,000, showing limited movement in recent sessions. Traders are now closely watching for a breakout, with $107,000 emerging as a critical resistance level. A daily close above this point could trigger the next upward phase.
Technical Patterns and Volatility Outlook
According to analysis prepared by Egrag Crypto via X, Bitcoin still has an unfilled CME gap between $91,970 and $92,520. However, Egrag suggests BTC could first rally toward the $130,000–$140,000 region before any meaningful correction.
This aligns with previous market cycles and Fibonacci extension projections. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has now dropped to its lowest level since mid-2024. Historically, such low volatility phases often end with a sharp directional move.
The daily chart is nearing a golden cross setup, as the 50-day SMA approaches a crossover above the 200-day SMA — typically a long-term bullish indicator. In October 2024, a similar pattern led to a 62% price increase within 51 days.
Fundamentals and Whale Activity Signal Caution
While technical signals suggest upside potential, on-chain data shows mixed sentiment among large holders. Over 30,000 BTC has been sold by whales over the last three days, signaling reduced short-term confidence. Exchange data also shows a rise in stablecoin reserves, suggesting investors are waiting for better entry points.
Meanwhile, institutional demand continues to shape market expectations. One asset manager forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to supply pressure from ETF inflows and corporate accumulation. This demand dynamic may prevent deeper corrections even if volatility increases.
According to Daan Crypto Trades, the market remains quiet heading into the weekend. “Price action was already slow,” the analyst noted. For now, traders are exercising caution, waiting for a confirmed breakout. A daily close above $107,000 is seen as the next key signal before any strong move begins.
