- Matthew Dixon’s Elliott Wave analysis traces Bitcoin’s full price cycle from 2011 to 2025, mapping impulsive and corrective phases with precision.
- The analysis identifies Bitcoin’s current position in Wave (V), projecting a final bullish impulse targeting between $130,000 and $160,000.
- Previous cycles in Dixon’s count show Bitcoin’s repeated pattern of deep corrections followed by explosive rallies consistent with Elliott Wave principles.
Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count analysis by veteran financial trader Matthew Dixon outlines Bitcoin’s entire price structure from 2011 to 2025, projecting a potential peak between $130,000 and $160,000 as the final phase progresses.
Early Phases of Bitcoin’s Macro Elliott Wave Structure
According to Matthew Dixon, the first major cycle, identified as Wave (I), began in 2011 around the $2–$3 range and ended near $1,100 in late 2013. This period was defined by explosive price action and limited market depth, marking Bitcoin’s initial expansion phase. Liquidity was thin, yet price momentum was extraordinary, leading to one of the earliest parabolic surges in digital asset history.
The following corrective stage, labeled Wave (II), occurred during 2014–2015, bringing Bitcoin down to approximately $150. Dixon described this decline as an 85% retracement, which aligns with the early impulsive corrections typical in developing markets. This was a drawn-out bear market when confidence eroded prior to another growth phase.
Wave (III) occurred from 2015 to late 2017, beginning at $150 and culminating at almost $19,800. This phase captured mass retail participation thanks to booming initial coin offerings and general market acceptance. Volume growth accelerated rapidly, defining it as the strongest impulsive wave in the macrostructure.
Consolidation and the Foundation for a New Cycle
The corrective or Wave (IV) phase took place from 2018 to 2020. During Wave (IV), Bitcoin did consolidate and retrace to about the 0.85 Fibonacci level of the prior advance. The prices bottomed near $3,000, which was the base for the next phase of bullish activity.
Dixon’s Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count suggests that this was a reset prior to an expansion back to the upside. Furthermore, the other changes in technology and maturity of the market were building the foundation for structural development. Ideally, Bitcoin’s price had consolidated, volumes stabilized, and volatility settle to normal levels, paving the way for long-term development.
This structure mirrors classic Elliott Wave principles, where a deep corrective move often precedes the final impulsive phase. By maintaining the wave integrity, Bitcoin’s broader pattern continued to align with long-term cyclical behavior observed across major asset classes.
Ongoing Wave (V) and Potential Price Targets
Matthew Dixon’s recent post on X (@mdtrade) detailed the ongoing Wave (V), beginning at the March 2020 COVID crash low near $3,800. The sub-waves in this cycle start with an up-move from the initial $64,000 in April 2021, followed by a correction during the mid-year to around $29,000.
The next cycle involving Bitcoin reached its highest price of about $69,000 in November 2021 in what is basically the impulse before correcting to around $15,000 in late 2022 and into early 2023. This decline marked the fourth sub-wave within the ongoing structure, setting the stage for what Dixon identifies as the final impulsive movement.
According to his projection, Bitcoin’s final push under Wave (V) could extend toward the $130,000–$160,000 range, depending on Fibonacci extensions. The analysis suggests Bitcoin may be in the concluding stages of a long-term five-wave cycle that began more than a decade ago, reaffirming the structured rhythm observed in its historical price behavior.
