- Bitcoin dominance hits 63.82% after crossing 0.618 Fib while DXY drops below 100, signaling a shift toward upcoming altcoin strength.
- Historical BTC.D peaks and DXY breakdowns align with past altseasons, setting the stage for another major altcoin rally in 2025.
- With BTC.D nearing reversal and DXY weakening fast, capital rotation into altcoins could spark a multi-month market breakout phase.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has entered a critical phase that may signal a sharp reversal. The dominance rate stands at 63.82%, reflecting a monthly increase of 1.51%. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to 99.330. Both charts now suggest that an altcoin season is rapidly approaching. Historical patterns and Fibonacci levels confirm the possibility of a major shift in crypto capital flows. Analysts cryptclay and MerlijnTrader highlight repeating cycles from 2019 and 2021, with 2025 showing strong similarities.
Key Fibonacci Levels Signal Rejection Ahead
Bitcoin dominance has crossed the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This level historically triggered bearish reversals in previous cycles. A potential move to the 0.786 Fibonacci zone could act as the final resistance before reversal. The same behavior marked tops in both 2019 and 2021. Hence, analysts expect 2025 to follow suit.
The chart spans from 2017 to 2025, showing three major BTC.D peaks near 70%. Each peak led to a decline. Red circles mark those moments, suggesting a repeating macro pattern. A third peak now forms in early 2025, reinforcing the probability of an upcoming trend shift.
Dollar Breakdown Fuels Altcoin Outlook
Meanwhile, the DXY shows a classic breakdown pattern. It declined from 106 to 99.330 in a matter of weeks. This breakdown echoes the previous dollar collapses in 2017 and 2020. Each breakdown synced perfectly with massive altcoin rallies.
Three green rectangles highlight failed dollar bull runs, while red zones pinpoint altcoin seasons. In all cases, Bitcoin dominance dropped from around 70% to near 40%. This inverse correlation remains strong and consistent. Additionally, a projected BTC.D decline to 45% aligns with this outlook. The chart projects this move by 2026-2027, matching previous cycle durations.
Market Sentiment Flips Toward Altcoins
The technical setup across both BTC.D and DXY builds a compelling narrative. Capital appears ready to rotate from Bitcoin into altcoins. Moreover, steady DXY weakness supports an extended altcoin rally. Market participants now monitor Fibonacci resistance and DXY support zones closely. If Bitcoin dominance confirms reversal, altcoins could begin a breakout phase lasting several months.
