- Bitcoin dominance rejected from 64% and is now testing the 58% support zone that historically led to altcoin rallies.
- Crypto Flow notes the 58% level has delayed a breakdown, resembling patterns that previously led to “true altseason.”
- Indicators like RSI and MACD show weakening momentum, hinting at a potential dominance drop toward 44% by mid-2026.
Bitcoin’s market dominance has shown renewed weakness after rejecting the 64% zone, a region aligning with the upper descending trendline that links major cycle peaks from 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2025.
The metric, now around 59.85%, has returned near a historically crucial 58% support level, which previously marked the start of sharp declines in Bitcoin’s dominance and rapid capital rotation into altcoins. According to Crypto Flow on X, a similar setup preceded what traders called “true altseason” in past cycles when dominance dropped toward the 40% range within two months.
Support Retest and Historical Correlation
Crypto Flow noted that the fall in Bitcoin dominance “got postponed” after the 58% level once again held firm. The analyst recalled that during earlier cycles, breaking below this level led to accelerated declines, with Bitcoin’s market share sliding as altcoins surged.
Based on current cycle timing, Crypto Flow added that they “didn’t expect BTC.D to hold the 58% level again,” yet it did, forcing a reevaluation of possible short-term extensions in dominance before a potential drop.
The chart structure supports this view. Bitcoin dominance recently rejected from the 64% resistance area, forming a long upper wick that often indicates exhaustion at the top. The key horizontal support remains at 58%, and historical data shows that each rejection from comparable levels, seen in 2017, 2019, and 2020, preceded significant pullbacks toward 40–44%. The projected path suggests a similar move if support gives way.
Indicators Show Diminishing Strength
Momentum indicators are also weakening. The RSI has slipped below its long-term ascending trendline, standing at 52.83 after peaking at 63.67 earlier. This breakdown indicates fading buying strength, consistent with prior cycle tops. The MACD histogram has also turned slightly negative at -0.75%, showing that upward momentum has cooled after an overextended phase.
According to analyst CryptoBullet, the macro setup still supports optimism for altcoins, stating that the “$BTC.D macro chart still makes me bullieve in Altseason.” This perspective aligns with the technical picture, which shows that if dominance breaks beneath the 58% level, capital may rotate rapidly into alternative assets.
Outlook for the Coming Months
The overall structure implies that Bitcoin’s dominance could be entering a cyclical downturn, potentially repeating the multi-year rhythm observed in previous cycles. If the 58% support eventually fails, dominance could decline toward the 44% area by mid-2026, consistent with historical retracements.
However, maintaining above 58% may extend the current phase, delaying altcoin expansion temporarily. For now, analysts emphasize patience, noting that “when BTC.D finally breaks, things will move fast.”
