- Bitcoin’s cycle tops have declined from 15× to 2.65× of the 2-year SMA, signaling reduced volatility and market maturation.
- The $159,000 price level represents the 2.65× multiple resistance of the 2-year SMA in the latest Bitcoin cycle.
- Despite lower highs, Bitcoin’s cycles maintain potential for gains beyond the 2-year moving average, reflecting long-term market strength.
Bitcoin has been showing a clear pattern of reduced volatility and lower cycle peaks over successive bull markets. This trend suggests a shift towards consolidation as the market matures.
Slowing Momentum Seen Through 2-Year SMA Multiples
In a recent tweet by Alphractal, a notable on-chain analyst, Bitcoin’s historical bull cycle peaks were analyzed in relation to its 2-year simple moving average (2Y SMA). The findings indicate a gradual compression in peak multiples over time. Early cycles saw Bitcoin peak at nearly 15 times its 2Y SMA. By 2017, the top hit a 10× multiple. During the 2021 cycle, the cryptocurrency initially reached 5×, followed by a lower second top at 2.65×.
This steady reduction in peak multiples signals diminishing price swings over time. It also coincides with Bitcoin’s growing utilization and evolving status as an asset class. The bigger the market, the less susceptible it seems to be for the gigantic price spikes of its nascent years.
Resistance Builds Around 2.65× Level
Bitcoin has been unable to break past the 2.65× multiple of the 2Y SMA in the most recent cycle. According to Alphractal’s tweet, this level now stands near $159,000. This serves as a key resistance point if the market attempts another bullish move. Traders and analysts may view this level as a target during any upcoming rally.
The inability to surpass this threshold shows the increasing challenge of achieving higher price multiples. It also reflects a possible shift in market behavior, where past explosive growth phases give way to more measured climbs. Investors may now watch this resistance closely as an indicator of market strength.
Bitcoin Market Continues Long-Term Strength Despite Lower Highs
Although the multiple of 2.65× has not been broken in the current cycle, the ability of Bitcoin to maintain strength remains. The consistent reversion to the 2-year average confirms sustained market interest and participation.
Each cycle still holds the potential for outsized gains, even if the growth rate is tapering. This trend showcases Bitcoin’s endurance in a changing economic environment. Despite lower peaks, the long-term structure remains intact, supporting the asset’s position in global markets.
