- Bitcoin’s current bear market, which began in April 2025, has reached a 50% drop after 150 days, reflecting a milder decline than past cycles.
- Historical data shows bear markets last 200–350 days, with projections hinting at a potential bottom and price below $50,000 within 75 days.
- A rising long-term support line suggests resilience, reinforcing long-term investor optimism despite ongoing bearish conditions.
Bitcoin’s present bear market still fuels speculation among analysts. One recent report by Timothy Peterson suggests an alternative starting point for this bear. Even though the actual all-time high (ATH) date was December 17, 2021, prices almost reached this mark on January 21, 2022. Therefore, using this later date enables a more pleasing statistical fit when taking prior market cycles into account.
Historical Bear Market Trends
There have been several bear markets for Bitcoin, all of which were marked by drops from the all-time high. These downtrends, according to historical patterns, usually endure 200–350 days. With an 85% drop from ATH in December 2018, the most severe fall took place. More than 300 days later, in November 2022, there was a 75% decline.
Besides, July 2021 saw a 50% decline from ATH around 150 days into the downturn. More recently, August 2024 recorded a milder 40% decline after 150 days. This variety in price action underscores Bitcoin’s cyclical nature.
Current Market Positioning
A newly plotted trajectory highlights the ongoing April 2025 bear market. It began at 95% of ATH and follows a steady decline. After 150 days, Bitcoin’s price has approached a 50% drop. However, this descent appears less severe compared to previous cycles.
Moreover, a dark dashed line on the chart, labeled “Lowest Price Forward,” suggests a rising long-term support level. It starts at a 40% decline on day one and extends to a 65% decline by day 379. This pattern implies Bitcoin’s long-term resilience despite ongoing bearish sentiment.
Potential Bottom and Outlook
While historical patterns suggest deeper drawdowns, the revised bear market timeline implies a bottom within the next 75 days. The projected low could drop below $50,000. However, a subjective assessment indicates that Bitcoin may find support before this level, with losses likely not exceeding 12% from current prices.
Additionally, Prior market cycles demonstrate that Bitcoin typically bounces back quickly from prolonged drops. This strengthens long-term investors’ optimism in the face of immediate uncertainties. Historical Bitcoin data reveals recurrent trends. Macroeconomic developments, investor mood, and external market pressures also influence price action.
