- Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks, while a weekly close below $76,540 could signal a failed recovery.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC after June’s low, while monthly transfers of coins dormant for five years fell from 67,000 BTC in 2024 to 34,000 BTC in 2026.
- Galaxy’s Alex Thorn links Bitcoin’s long-term appeal to rising U.S. debt, while stablecoin circulation reached $304 billion, up 129% since early 2024.
Galaxy’s Alex Thorn says Bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase after reaching a June 2026 low, despite trading 35% below its October 2025 peak. In a report dated October 22, Thorn cited technical indicators, reduced institutional selling and rising debt levels to support his outlook. Bitcoin traded at $81,391 that Thursday, down from $84,176 the previous day.
Bitcoin Reclaims Key Technical Levels
Thorn said Bitcoin regained its 50-week moving average in September and closed above it for five consecutive weeks through October 18. The cryptocurrency’s June low also held near its 200-week moving average, which has marked previous bear-market floors.
Bitcoin’s latest decline followed a 44-week period below the 50-week average. Thorn noted that previous sustained recoveries after longer periods below this level preceded substantial gains. However, he identified a weekly close below $76,540, unrecovered within a month, as a warning that the latest reclaim had failed.
He also reported that Bitcoin’s current drawdown reached 53%, shallower than previous recorded bear markets. Meanwhile, coins involved in the recovery from $58,525 carried an average cost of $74,811.
Institutional Selling Declines as Positioning Shifts
Galaxy’s report found that asset managers’ net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57%, from 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC. Leveraged funds’ net short positions also declined from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC.
Institutional filings showed nine major investment firms reduced holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC. However, other reporting institutions collectively increased their exposure, while spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds added 87,000 BTC after June’s low.
Thorn also highlighted a shift in older Bitcoin holdings. Monthly transfers of coins unmoved for at least five years fell from 67,000 BTC in 2024 to 34,000 BTC in 2026.
Debt Concerns and Market Sentiment Shape Outlook
Thorn pointed to U.S. federal debt reaching $40.44 trillion on October 20 and a fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.99 trillion. He argued that rising debt strengthens Bitcoin’s appeal as an asset with fixed issuance.
Meanwhile, he noted that attention has shifted toward stablecoins, tokenization and blockchain infrastructure. Stablecoins in circulation reached $304 billion, up 129% since early 2024. Thorn maintains a bullish outlook, with Bitcoin’s prior high of $125,000 serving as a potential recovery reference.
