- Arthur Hayes expects the Bitcoin bull cycle to continue into 2026, citing anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
- He suggests that increasing liquidity from government actions will support BTC’s upward trend despite current market stagnation.
- Hayes dismisses the four-year cycle theory and anticipates further gains for Bitcoin driven by monetary policy changes and fiscal measures.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has projected that the current Bitcoin bull cycle could stretch into 2026. In a recent interview, he stated the market remains in the middle of its uptrend. Hayes attributes this extended cycle to potential monetary policy shifts, including a prolonged interest rate-cutting phase by the United States Federal Reserve.
Hayes predicts that the Federal Reserve will start decreasing the rates soon and this cycle can last till the middle of 2026. He also emphasized that political factors may also come into play. Hayes is of the opinion that the pressure exerted on former President Donald Trump to reduce the rate would affect the judgment of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This is a closely observed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with the anticipation of analysts that the rate would go down by 25 basis points and even lower by the end of this year.
The effect of Liquidity on Bitcoin.
Hayes focused on the fact that monetary easing usually injects the financial markets with liquidity. According to him, most of this new liquidity may be pumped into Bitcoin, a beneficiary in his opinion since it has a limited supply as compared to fiat currencies. He indicated that high money printing is known to boost the price of Bitcoin.
Speaking about the state of affairs in the market, Hayes admitted that Bitcoin has not been performing as well as S&P 500 and gold. The traditional assets have recently hit new all-time highs. Nevertheless, Hayes indicated that the deviation is short-term and not a significant issue, which still places Bitcoin as a premier asset category in the long run.
The Current Market Behavior of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price has not declined significantly, as it is currently at an all-time high of approximately 124,000. This lateral movement has led to speculation about whether the market top has been achieved. In comparison to this opinion, Hayes asserts that the cycle has more space to expand, and macroeconomic variables are likely to affect the future price movement.
The strategy that Hayes said he would use to exit the company would be based on macroeconomic factors, and specifically, monetary policy changes. Once again, he said the stimulus and liquidity injections by the government are still in their infancy. This, in his opinion, is the indicator of further upward potential, and Bitcoin can go to $200,000 within the ongoing cycle.
