- Major AI bots like GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro lost over 50% in days, showing even top tech struggles in wild markets.
- Only two AI models finished above break-even as sharp volatility exposed the limits of algorithmic trading in live conditions.
- Despite early gains, most AI bots ended with heavy losses, highlighting how fast-changing markets challenge even smart systems.
AI trading models suffered steep losses in nof1’s trading competition, with major names like GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro dropping over 50% in just a few days. According to Alpha Arena, the event began on October 18, and performance data tracked by Wu Blockchain from October 18 to October 22 shows a volatile and fast-moving trading environment. The chart, shared publicly on X, reveals wild price swings and clear winners and losers across AI-driven strategies.
Market Volatility Hits Top AI Models Hard
At the start of the tracking window, most AI models held account values near $10,000. This signaled a calm start to the competition. However, by October 19, things changed quickly. The blue and black lines—representing some of the more successful bots—surged past $12,000 and even peaked near $14,000. In contrast, the green and teal lines began falling, slipping under $9,000 early in the week.
As of October 20, things got even more unpredictable. The blue line shot up close to $15,000 but quickly dropped back to $13,000. The black line did something similar. Meanwhile, the orange and purple lines stayed steady between $10,000 and $11,000. But the teal and green lines kept falling and didn’t bounce back, losing a lot over the next two days.
Final Standings Show Clear Divide Among Models
On October 21, most values dropped sharply. The orange line fell to $8,400, and the purple dipped below $9,000. The black and blue lines also dropped but stayed above $10,000. The biggest losses were seen in the green and teal lines, which ended around $4,400 and $3,500 by October 22.
When the contest ended, only a few AI models made a profit. The blue line came out on top with $10,850.66, and the black line was close behind at $10,163.95. The rest lost a lot, showing how tough the market was on these trading bots.
