- Polymarket data shows Trump leading with a 62.9% chance to win the election, as Harris trails at 37.0%.
- In major swing states, Trump leads narrowly in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, showing strong state-level support.
- National polling places Harris slightly ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump holds a broader lead nationwide.
As presidential election nears, a recent update by polymarket predictions for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has noted a race.
As of November 5, 2024, the market volume stands at $2.87 billion. Donald Trump holds a leading market position with 62.9%, while Kamala Harris trails at 37.0%.
Source: Polymarkets
Over the past records, the graph generated by polymarkets shows fluctuations over the year, starting with Trump consistently above Harris in early months. From March to early June, Trump’s line remains relatively stable, hovering just under 60%. During this same period, Harris maintained a low market share, close to zero, indicating limited confidence in her chances.
Around mid-June, Trump’s position strengthens further, with noticeable peaks reaching over 60%. In July, Harris experiences a sharp rise, nearly overtaking Trump at one point, reaching her highest point in the race.
However, by August, Trump reasserts his lead, while Harris’s percentage falls back. Trump’s market dominance fluctuates but stays consistently above 60% towards the end of the graph.
Throughout September and October, Trump’s position remains strong, hovering above the 60% mark. During this period, Harris’s market share decreases further, stabilizing around 35%. The last quarter of the graph indicates minimal changes in positions, with Trump maintaining a clear lead.
While all this has been happening, Trump still holds the top position on the key swing states. According to NewYorkTimes update on the leading polls between the two 2024 contestants, trump has a shown a broad dominance compared to Kamala Harris.
Source: NewYorkTimes
As of November 1, Harris holds slight leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, each by less than 1%, with both candidates polling at 49% in these states.
Trump has narrow leads in Pennsylvania (less than 1%), North Carolina (1%), Georgia (2%), and Arizona (3%), with his support hovering around 49% in each. In Nevada, both candidates are tied at 48%.
DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
