- Bitcoin recorded over $21 billion in spent outputs linked to holdings above $1 million, with more than 230,000 BTC moving on-chain.
- Ali Charts reports Bitcoin declines of 27%–72% across four previous U.S. midterm election cycles, though correlation does not prove causation.
- Ali Charts identifies $73,000 as a key support level near short-term holders’ cost basis, with seller exhaustion and renewed demand worth watching.
Bitcoin recorded its largest on-chain movement of 2026, with more than $21 billion in spent outputs linked to holdings worth over $1 million, according to analyst Darkfost. Meanwhile, Ali Charts highlighted past Bitcoin declines around U.S. midterm elections, with the November 3 vote approaching. The analysts pointed to separate signals involving transfers, historical returns and potential downside levels.
Darkfost Tracks More Than 230,000 Bitcoin in Transfers
Darkfost reported that more than 230,000 BTC moved through spent unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs, each worth over $1 million. Most of these outputs were between one and six months old, while another $4.6 billion came from long-term holders whose coins were aged between 12 months and three years.
However, Darkfost said the movement likely involved transfers between addresses because the coins did not appear to reach exchanges. The analyst noted that UTXOs spent and sent to exchanges showed no comparable spike. Depending on whether the transactions realize profits or losses, the movement could produce a rise in either metric.
Ali Charts Highlights Bitcoin’s Midterm Election Pattern
Ali Charts said Bitcoin declined during the four previous U.S. midterm election cycles, recording drops of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018 and 27% in 2022. However, the analyst acknowledged that correlation does not establish election-related causation.
Fourth-quarter returns also varied. Bitcoin gained 391% in 2010 but fell 16.70% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018 and 14.75% in 2022. Three of those four midterm years ended with negative fourth-quarter returns.
Analysts Focus on $73,000 as a Key Price Level
Ali Charts identified $73,000 as a level to watch if selling pressure increases after the November 3 election. That price approximates Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis, representing the average purchase price for relatively recent investors.
The analyst said Bitcoin has historically found support near this metric during established bull markets. Ali would watch for seller exhaustion and renewed demand before considering a long position.
