- Geoffrey Kendrick says Bitcoin’s fall to ~$59K likely marked the cycle low after a 53% correction from its $126K peak.
- He maintains year-end targets of $100K for Bitcoin and $4K for Ethereum despite prior volatility and ETF outflows.
- Selloff was linked to ETF redemptions, macro stress, and liquidity shifts tied to SpaceX IPO-related funding needs.
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said the crypto winter is over, linking Bitcoin’s drop to around $59,000 as the cycle bottom. The analyst maintained year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum. He cited ETF outflows, macro pressure, and liquidity shifts tied to the SpaceX IPO as drivers of the selloff.
Kendrick Declares Cycle Bottom At $59K
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said Bitcoin’s decline to roughly $59,000 likely marked the cycle low. He stated that Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 before falling 53 percent.
Notably, Bitcoin traded near $63,484 at press time after recovering from recent lows. Kendrick maintained that the $59,000 level now acts as a firm floor for this cycle.He also confirmed that Standard Chartered still targets $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.
However, the bank previously adjusted higher targets, including $150,000, after market conditions shifted. Ethereum remains positioned for relative strength as conditions stabilize, according to Kendrick.
ETF Outflows And SpaceX IPO Pressure
Kendrick linked the selloff to heavy spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions across recent weeks. He said ETF outflows reached about $5 billion since mid-May. Investors reportedly shifted capital to support liquidity needs tied to the SpaceX IPO. The IPO created major demand for cash, pulling funds from risk assets including crypto.
Additionally, rising geopolitical tension involving the US and Iran increased oil prices. This pushed US Treasury yields higher and reduced appetite for speculative assets. However, Kendrick noted easing macro pressure as oil prices stabilized and sentiment improved.
Conditions Needed For Recovery Confirmation
Kendrick outlined specific conditions required to confirm a sustained recovery phase. First, ETF flows must return to positive territory after recent sustained outflows. Second, corporate treasury accumulation of Bitcoin must continue across major holders. Third, oil prices must decline further, supported by potential geopolitical progress.
He also pointed to Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin as a key confirmation signal. Moreover, renewed institutional demand and reduced macro stress would reinforce the trend shift. Kendrick stated these factors together would confirm stability after recent volatility.
