- BTC implied volatility rises to 57% for the U.S. election week, up from 47% the week before.
- A 10% volatility spread reflects market anticipation of post-election uncertainty and risk.
- Market volume remains cautious, with investors holding back despite recent Bitcoin gains.
The U.S. presidential election is fast approaching, and the cryptocurrency market is beginning to reflect the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. Datalab’s options data indicates that the implied volatility (IV) for Bitcoin (BTC) is set to jump significantly for the election week.
Currently, the IV for that period stands at 57%, a notable increase from the 47% registered just a week before. This 10% spread reveals how investors expect heightened market fluctuations as the election draws near.
Furthermore, the term structure of BTC options suggests a more volatile post-election period. The data indicates that the market is currently pricing in relatively stable conditions in the lead-up to the election, but volatility is expected to surge afterward.
A closer look at the chart data reveals that while at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility remains moderate, forward implied volatility (FWD IV) reaches over 80% in early November. This spike likely points to concerns over potential market-moving events during the election period.
Source: Greeks.live
Market sentiment remains cautious despite Bitcoin’s recent gains. Volume data shows that large investors remain reluctant to place heavy bets on continued upside even with favorable market conditions in the short term.
The reluctance of big players to increase their exposure suggests that the broader market is awaiting further developments before taking decisive action.
Both implied volatility measures taper off after the election, but FWD IV remains slightly elevated compared to ATM IV over the longer term. This indicates that traders and investors are pricing in ongoing uncertainty and potential volatility extending into 2025.
However, the sharp increase around early November is the most significant moment for expected market turbulence.
DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
