- Arthur Hayes projects HYPE could rise from $30 to $150 if Hyperliquid revenue reaches $1.4B annualized by August.
- About 97% of Hyperliquid revenue funds HYPE buybacks, returning value directly to token holders.
- New HIP-3 markets for assets like gold and Nasdaq already generate nearly 10% of platform revenue.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, projects Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could rise to $150 by August 2026. His forecast is based on potential 30-day revenues hitting an annualized $1.4 billion. Hayes emphasized that even a weak broader crypto market would not derail the platform’s revenue-driven growth strategy.
Hyperliquid Revenue Model Drives Bull Case
Hayes frames Hyperliquid as the dominant perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX), generating the largest protocol revenue outside stablecoins. About 97% of revenues are used to buy back HYPE tokens, returning value directly to holders. At the time of writing, HYPE traded near $30. A rise to $150 implies roughly a fivefold increase in six months.
His model assumes 30-day annualized revenue grows from $843 million in March to $1.4 billion by August. Hyperliquid previously reached this revenue level in August of last year. Hayes also projects the market will rerate the token’s earnings multiple from 12x to 25.2x, remaining competitive compared to traditional exchange tokens.
Small Market Share Gains Could Boost Revenue
Hyperliquid does not require overall market expansion to reach its revenue target. Hayes says capturing a 3.97 percentage-point increase in perpetual futures market share from centralized exchanges could restore the $1.4 billion annualized run rate.
Perpetual futures trading represents a large segment of crypto derivatives, allowing even modest market share gains to generate meaningful revenue. Hayes referenced the decentralized exchange GMX, which reached $90 in April 2023 by dominating perp DEX volume and distributing fees to token holders.
HIP-3 Markets Fuel New Trading Volume
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework enables permissionless listing of perpetual markets for users staking 500,000 HYPE tokens. Early markets include gold, silver, the Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 contracts.
In just four months, HIP-3 generated close to 10% of total platform revenue. Hayes projects HIP-3 revenue will increase 160% over six months, contributing to a 66% rise in total protocol revenue. HIP-4, which may support permissionless prediction markets, could provide additional upside not included in the base scenario.
