- Binance’s stablecoin reserves have grown relative to Bitcoin, indicating strong buying liquidity on the exchange.
- The reserve ratio’s past appearances in 2023 and 2025 preceded major Bitcoin rallies to new price highs.
- Current levels between 3 and 4 suggest an accumulation phase, with potential for further upside if Bitcoin holds above $80K.
The Bitcoin-stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance is flashing a potential buy signal for the third time this market cycle, according to analyst Darkfost. The indicator, which compares Bitcoin holdings to stablecoin reserves on the exchange, is showing a pattern previously linked to major price recoveries.
Following the October 10 liquidation event, both spot and derivatives markets saw heavy turbulence. That disruption prompted investors to either accumulate Bitcoin at lower levels or rotate into stablecoins, reshaping Binance’s internal liquidity structure.
Binance Reserves
After the sharp correction, Binance recorded notable changes across both Bitcoin and stablecoin reserves. Stablecoin balances have expanded relative to Bitcoin holdings, suggesting increased liquidity waiting on the sidelines.
Darkfost noted that this ratio last appeared before strong rallies, including moves from $16,600 to $24,800 in January 2023 and from $20,300 to $73,000 in March 2023. The most recent instance occurred in March 2025, when Bitcoin surged from $78,600 to $123,500.
This metric shows the growing stablecoin supply available for potential market entry, while Bitcoin’s reserves continue to decline. Historically, such conditions have preceded supply squeezes that favored upside momentum.
Notably, this current setup is forming in a period not typically associated with deep corrections, making its appearance particularly uncommon in the ongoing bullish environment.
Ratio Trends Show Changing Market Liquidity
Data from Binance’s reserve ratio since 2018 shows clear phases of accumulation and rotation. From 2018 to 2020, the ratio fell sharply from above 60 to below 5, coinciding with Bitcoin’s recovery from around $4,000 to $10,000. Between 2021 and 2022, the ratio moved within 4 to 12 while Bitcoin reached its $69,000 peak, then declined again as traders moved into stablecoins during the 2022 downturn.
By 2023, the ratio stabilized between 3 and 6 as Bitcoin regained ground above $60,000, sustaining momentum into 2025. Analysts often mark these low-ratio periods as phases of accumulation, reflecting ample buying power from stablecoin reserves.
Renewed Accumulation Phase
At present, the ratio is between 3 and 4, indicating a buildup of stablecoin liquidity on Binance. This positioning suggests readiness for potential market deployment if Bitcoin maintains strength above $80,000. However, a continued decline below 2 could imply short-term outflows before any extended move higher.
Such data-driven signals, according to Darkfost, provide an on-chain view of market readiness and capital rotation within Binance’s ecosystem, aligning with broader liquidity cycles observed throughout Bitcoin’s history.
