- The Fed’s potential end to Quantitative Tightening could be a turning point for liquidity and risk assets.
- Big Tech earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple and Amazon may shape equity and crypto sentiment.
- The Trump–Xi meeting could revive trade cooperation, easing inflation risks and boosting cross-border liquidity.
The final week of October could be one of the most consequential periods of the fourth quarter. Markets are poised for a sequence of high impact events that could determine liquidity flows and investor sentiment for the rest of the year.
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, a potential U.S.–China trade breakthrough, and earnings from top technology companies are expected to set the tone across global markets and crypto assets. Analysts say this convergence of policy, trade, and corporate performance could define the next direction for risk markets.
Fed Poised for Key Policy Shift
The Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday carries unusual weight. A 25-basis-point rate cut is already priced in, but investors are focused on Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. The move marks a one-off adjustment or the beginning of a broader easing cycle.
However, the larger development may come from the Fed’s stance on Quantitative Tightening. If the central bank confirms an end to liquidity drainage, it could be a turning point for risk assets.
Historically, every major bull cycle has followed a change from tightening to support. According to market strategists, any acknowledgment of easing financial conditions could send bond yields lower and weaken the U.S. dollar, paving the way for capital to rotate into equities and digital assets.
Big Tech Earnings to Steer Market Sentiment
Immediately following the Fed meeting, investors will turn to the earnings releases from major technology firms. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are set to report on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday.
Combined, these companies represent roughly one-fifth of the S&P 500’s total weight. Stronger-than-expected earnings could inject optimism into both equity and crypto markets. However, a weak showing may disrupt the seven-year “Uptober” streak, during which markets have historically ended October in positive territory.
According to QCP Broadcast, Big Tech results, coupled with ongoing U.S. data delays and a 26-day government shutdown, have left sentiment cautious as traders assess risk exposure.
Trump–Xi Meeting Could Unlock Trade Relief
Attention will then shift to Thursday’s anticipated meeting between former President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Reports suggest both sides are nearing a preliminary trade agreement.
If tariffs are reduced, it could ease inflation pressure and reopen global liquidity channels. Past trade peace efforts have historically coincided with stronger cross-border market flows. QCP Broadcast noted that crypto assets staged a modest rebound following recent U.S.–China trade discussions, indicating the market’s sensitivity to global cooperation.
Meanwhile, The Kobeissi Letter noted growing fiscal pressure in the United States, reporting that interest payments now consume roughly 23% of federal revenue. This surge, driven by higher rates and debt levels, has lifted annual interest expenditures to $1.2 trillion, nearly double the cost from four years ago.
Together, monetary policy shifts, corporate results and trade developments positions this week as a decisive moment for global markets.
