- Bitcoin’s 8.5x surge reflects concentrated liquidity in safe assets, delaying altcoin momentum despite strong macro and equity market performance.
- Ethereum’s inability to surpass its 2021 high indicates limited confidence, keeping investor focus on Bitcoin and high-cap digital assets.
- With rate cuts, QT ending, and 155 ETF filings, liquidity could soon flow into altcoins, setting up a parabolic Q4 phase.
Why no Altseason in 2025 yet? Despite Bitcoin’s sharp rise to $126,000 and record highs in traditional assets, the broader crypto market remains muted. Veteran traders attribute this to cautious liquidity distribution and investors’ preference for safer, low-risk assets.
Bitcoin’s Rally Amid Liquidity Concentration
According to analyst Ash Crypto, Bitcoin has surged nearly 8.5 times from its 2022 low of $15,400, reaching $126,000 in 2025. This remarkable ascent has occurred alongside record-breaking gains in U.S. equities and precious metals. However, the liquidity behind this expansion remains concentrated in perceived safe assets rather than speculative markets.
Bitcoin’s current role as “digital gold” reflects investor sentiment amid global uncertainty. Large capital inflows have favored Bitcoin, gold, and leading tech stocks, leaving riskier digital assets behind. While this has strengthened Bitcoin’s dominance, it has delayed the onset of a broad-based altcoin rally.
Ash Crypto notes that liquidity remains confined to assets viewed as stable and less volatile. This selective participation echoes patterns observed in previous market cycles, where institutional and retail investors first accumulated strong-value assets before expanding into smaller-cap cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum’s Struggle to Reclaim All-Time Highs
While Bitcoin has captured global liquidity flows, Ethereum remains below its 2021 peak of $4,800. The asset’s performance has not yet signaled the broad confidence required to ignite a new Altseason. According to the analysis, Ethereum’s stagnation reflects broader investor caution and limited risk appetite.
The analyst explains that altcoins tend to follow Ethereum’s breakout rather than precede it. In previous patterns, once Ethereum trades above its prior all-time high, historically, capital then moves into riskier digital assets after Ethereum becomes more stable above $5,000. Until then, we remain in the position that the upper-tier cryptocurrencies see the bulk of the capital.
Furthermore, the similarity between Ethereum and Bitcoin continues to be robust, but the reluctance of Ethereum to show some clear strength suggests that investors are likely still considering the macroeconomic indicators before they shift the capital out of Ethereum and Bitcoin into riskier cryptocurrencies.
Macro Uncertainty and Investor Behavior in 2025
In 2025, macroeconomic pressures associated with tariffs, trade wars, and other policy changes caused investors to turn to stability rather than speculation. As Ash Crypto points out, this is just a pattern—when macroeconomic uncertainty takes place, liquidity will move towards reliable value stores like gold, bonds, and the best-performing technology stocks.
The current environment reflects the early stages of a bull market from 2017 to 2021, when prudent capital first moves into safe assets and then expands into risk-on assets.The present market cycle appears to be following this same structure.
The analyst’s model outlines a familiar progression: USD to Bitcoin, then to Ethereum, followed by high-cap and low-cap altcoins. This sequence, driven by confidence and liquidity expansion, remains the foundation of every historical crypto bull phase.
Expectations Ahead of Monetary Easing and ETF Approvals
Ash Crypto anticipates a turning point as monetary policy shifts in late 2025. With three expected rate cuts, quantitative tightening projected to end, and broader liquidity easing, capital could soon re-enter risk assets.
He also indicates that over 155 altcoin ETF filings are awaiting approval, possibly during November. These vehicles could be significant catalysts for more institutional exposure and the potential for larger numbers of market participants besides Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The policy changes that are anticipated would trigger inflows back into the crypto space, which would drive confidence in altcoins. Once Ethereum has a definite breakout above $5,000, historical trends suggest that the market will expand rapidly.
As the analyst concludes, the market remains in its consolidation phase before liquidity transitions toward altcoins. Many participants view this as a preparatory stage for a possible parabolic Q4 rally, driven by easing financial conditions and increasing investor confidence.
