- Bitcoin structure aligns with 2015 and 2019 basing phases, suggesting prolonged consolidation.
- TOTAL3 index breaks a three year downtrend against Bitcoin despite persistent bearish sentiment.
- Q4 and Q1 historically deliver strong performance after recurring September weakness.
Bitcoin’s longer term structure continues to draw comparisons to previous cycle inflection points as analysts assess whether altcoins are approaching a macro shift. A multi decade logarithmic projection shared by analyst Michael van de Poppe indicated recurring peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, each followed by steep retracements.
Those declines coincided with red histogram phases, indicating prolonged momentum deterioration. However, the current structure now displays extended green negative bars between 2022 and 2025, resembling the drawn out bottoming phases seen in 2015 and 2019.
Notably, the business cycle track in the lower panel of the same chart shows values stabilizing at historically low levels. Previous troughs at those depths preceded accumulation phases that eventually developed into expansion legs.
According to van de Poppe, current conditions resemble Q3 2019 and Q2 2016 rather than late stage cycle exhaustion. He also pointed to seasonal patterns, stating that markets tend to undergo corrections in September and October before improving in subsequent quarters.
Q4 2025 and Q1 2026
Van de Poppe added that September remains historically weak, using Ethereum’s 10% monthly drop as an example. However, he emphasized that Q4 often registers positive performance, while Q1 ranks as the most favorable quarter.
This recurring pattern has now become a reference point for traders weighing whether current weakness aligns with cyclical norms rather than structural breakdown. That perspective aligns with sentiment shared by other analysts examining cross-asset relationships within the crypto market.
Their focus has shifted from short term price reactions toward identifying broader rotational triggers. Consequently, momentum studies have gained renewed relevance across alternative assets tied to Bitcoin’s macro rhythm.
Three Year Downtrend Break
El Crypto Prof observed that the TOTAL3 index versus Bitcoin recently broke a three year downtrend. That metric excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum, isolating liquidity flow specifically within secondary assets. He commented on the highly pessimistic climate, noting that sentiment remains near extreme lows despite confirmable structural improvement.
However, confirmation still is required to sustain follow through rather than singular reactions. Analysts are comparing current behavior to previous cycle recoveries where initial breakouts faced hesitation before establishing traction. This places emphasis on consistency over volatility spikes.
Earlier Cycle Foundations
Historical momentum expansions in 2014–2017 and 2018–2021 both emerged from similar green negative stretches. The present reading is within that same configuration, extending across multiple quarters rather than weeks. That slow transition suggests that any forthcoming expansion would likely originate from a prolonged base rather than abrupt reversal.
Discussions around timing have shifted from immediate breakout predictions toward identifying progression markers. Analysts now reference structural rhythm over isolated rallies, framing the environment through cycle symmetry rather than singular catalysts.
