- Bitcoin dominance is at 57.96%, retesting the 100 week EMA, a level that has historically defined market cycle turning points.
- Analysts warn a break below the EMA could lead to Altseason, with downside targets for BTC dominance near 50% and 42%.
- Analyst Wimar noted the market entered its most bullish cycle phase, historically aligning with altcoins surging 20x to 50x.
Bitcoin’s market dominance has returned to a decisive level, retesting the 100 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after months of correction. Current dominance is at 57.96%, just above the critical EMA zone.
Historically, this level has marked turning points that shaped market cycles, influencing whether capital favors Bitcoin or rotates into altcoins. Analysts note that past interactions with this indicator led to either dominance rallies or sharp declines into altcoin seasons.
Historical Patterns at the EMA 100
The 100 week EMA has repeatedly acted as a boundary for Bitcoin dominance since 2019. When dominance broke above in June 2019, Bitcoin’s share of the market surged after long accumulation.
However, the following year saw a break below in June 2020, which coincided with a sharp decline. By January 2021, another break beneath the EMA preceded a major altcoin rally, marking the start of Altcoin Season.
Momentum reversed in March 2023. At that time, Bitcoin dominance climbed back above the EMA 100, leading to a powerful uptrend that peaked near 66% during 2024. These repeated shifts show how the EMA level has historically dictated whether Bitcoin consolidates control or loses ground to alternative assets.
Current Market Setup
The chart shows Bitcoin dominance once again at this long tested level. Notably, the metric has fallen from its 2024 peak, now facing a retest of the EMA 100. According to analyst Alex Clay, history suggests that decisive moves at this point have always aligned with broad market cycle changes.
If dominance falls below the EMA 100, analysts warn that capital rotation into altcoins may accelerate. Potential downside targets include 50% and even 42%, based on previous cycle behavior. However, sustaining above the EMA could allow Bitcoin to maintain market control, holding dominance above 60%.
Analysts Outline Possible Outcomes
Analyst Clay stressed that history shows every decisive move here was a major shift in the cycle. He noted that a breakdown could be the trigger of Altseason, bringing heavy inflows into assets like Ethereum and smaller altcoins.
Additionally, analyst Wimar stated on X that the market just entered the most bullish phase of the cycle. He noted that this phase has historically aligned with Altseason, and projected altcoins could post gains ranging from 20x to 50x.
Notably, both analysts emphasize that the EMA 100 zone is the defining level. Whether Bitcoin maintains dominance or altcoins gain momentum depends on the outcome of this test.
