- Over 200,000 ETH left exchanges in 48 hours, showing strong buying interest and lower selling pressure.
- ETH dominance sits at 14.59% and could rally toward 20-22% if resistance at 15.38% breaks.
- Shrinking supply on exchanges signals long-term holders accumulating as price steadies above $3,500.
Ethereum is at a critical juncture right now, with analysts pointing out significant withdrawals from exchanges and an uptick in dominance levels. In just 48 hours, more than 200,000 ETH has exited centralized exchanges, leading to speculation about potential moves from institutional investors. This surge in activity took place between June and August 2025, a time characterized by some wild price fluctuations.
Notably, shrinking exchange supply often precedes rallies, as selling pressure reduces. Analyst Ali suggests this trend could indicate sustained accumulation by long-term holders. Moreover, the timing aligns with Ethereum trading near $3,500 after recovering from its August lows.
Source: Ali
Exchange Outflows and Price Action
Besides the withdrawals, ETH price trends reveal an active market. From mid-June, ETH traded between $2,850 and $4,200. In early July, Ethereum staged a rally, climbing near $4,200 before facing a correction. However, by late July, prices dropped sharply toward $3,200. Consequently, buyers stepped in during early August, pushing prices to $3,800 before a mild pullback.
Additionally, spikes in exchange outflows aligned with these volatile moves, suggesting whales and institutions were repositioning. Hence, reducing balances on exchanges adds weight to the bullish outlook.
Moreover, supply data shows a steady decline across the summer months. Lower supply signals less immediate selling, while consistent outflows reflect strong demand. Analysts argue this mirrors classic accumulation behavior before larger breakouts.
Ethereum Dominance and Market Cycles
According to Rekt Capital, ETH dominance now sits at 14.59% as of August 23, 2025. Ethereum’s dominance cycles have historically ranged from 7% to 22%. From 8% to over 20%, ETH’s dominance increased during the 2020–2021 cycle.
That increase was accompanied by a surge in institutional usage and the DeFi boom. Dominance eventually weakened in 2022 and 2023, leveling down close to the 15% support zone.
Source: Rekt Capital
Around the 15% dominance level, ETH is currently encountering difficulty. If dominance surpasses 15.38%, analysts anticipate a shift to the 20–22% area. These cycles also repeat every three to four years, matching the rhythms of the larger cryptocurrency markets. Consequently, the ongoing structure suggests ETH may enter a fresh expansion phase.
Ethereum’s price and dominance trends now converge toward critical zones. Additionally, institutional accumulation and exchange outflows strengthen the bullish case. However, the market must hold above $3,500 to confirm momentum.
