- SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s consistent rejection of crypto ETF proposals has led to a drop in XRP ETF approval odds to 65%.
- Even with XRP meeting updated SEC standards, Crenshaw’s influence continues to cast doubt on the ETF’s approval timeline.
- BlackRock’s potential entry into the XRP ETF space fuels speculation, yet Crenshaw’s position remains a major hurdle to progress.
Market sentiment surrounding the XRP ETF has shifted after SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw renewed her opposition to crypto exchange-traded products. This stance has contributed to a decline in approval odds for a Ripple ETF, which recently dropped to 65%. The XRP ETF now faces increased regulatory uncertainty as the 2025 decision approaches.
Crenshaw has voted against all 13 crypto ETF proposals reviewed internally by the SEC this year. These proposals included approvals for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and several ETF rule changes involving in-kind redemption mechanisms. Despite other commissioners approving each proposal, Crenshaw remained the only dissenting voice in every vote.
Her voting record has raised concerns within the market about potential bias against crypto products, including the XRP ETF. While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs moved forward, XRP ETF discussions stalled following her continued resistance. Crenshaw’s role as the only Democrat on the Commission has also drawn attention to the political dynamics at play.
Crenshaw’s disapproval may continue to impact the market outlook. With the current voting pattern, any proposal involving XRP may face delay or rejection. Polymarket data shows that XRP ETF approval odds dropped sharply before rebounding slightly to 72%.
XRP ETF Sentiment Weakens Despite Industry Progress
The XRP ETF remains a key topic following the launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca in July 2025. Despite this progress, the SEC has yet to decide on a full XRP ETF listing. Crenshaw’s resistance has disrupted the momentum that had been building since mid-2024.
Source: Polymarket
Market optimism had pushed XRP ETF approval odds as high as 90% earlier this year. However, Crenshaw’s firm stance drove those odds down to 65% before a mild recovery. Analysts believe sentiment will remain unstable as long as her opposition remains unchanged.
XRP now meets updated SEC standards for token listing, including six months of derivatives trading. Even so, regulatory approval remains uncertain due to Crenshaw’s influence. This has left market participants awaiting further clarity on upcoming SEC votes.
BlackRock Rumors Fuel Speculation on XRP’s Future
BlackRock may enter the XRP ETF space, according to speculation around a possible new filing. The company’s digital asset director, Maxwell Stein, is scheduled to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 event. His appearance has added to expectations of future engagement between Ripple and major financial firms.
Despite rising interest, Crenshaw’s stance could delay any progress. Her criticism of SEC guidance on stablecoins and staking protocols underscores her position on digital asset regulation. Her voice may continue shaping ETF policy outcomes for XRP and other altcoins through 2025.
Ripple’s path toward ETF approval remains uncertain. Crenshaw’s continued dissent is now a key variable. The final outcome may depend on how other SEC commissioners respond in upcoming decisions.
