- Ki Young Ju’s April bear market call missed Bitcoin’s 54% price surge to $123,236 by July.
- The CryptoQuant CEO now views the Bitcoin cycle theory as obsolete due to increased institutional holding.
- Ju acknowledges long-term whale investors are replacing retail traders in shaping market trends.
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has officially declared the widely followed Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete. Ju, a prominent figure in cryptocurrency analysis, made the announcement following his incorrect prediction earlier this year, which suggested that the Bitcoin bull cycle had come to an end.
In April, Ju warned that Bitcoin was entering a bear market, noting that significant capital inflows had failed to drive the price higher. At the time, Bitcoin was trading close to $80,000. However, contrary to his forecast, Bitcoin rallied strongly in the months that followed. By May, the price climbed to $112,000 and later reached a new all-time high of $123,236 in July. Investors who ignored Ju’s analysis saw potential gains of approximately 54 percent.
Analyst Issues Public Apology
Answering his previous comments, Ju apologized to his victims for his prophecy. He admitted that his words had a possible effect on the behavior of investors and promised to pay more attention to the provision of data-driven insights in the future. Ju pointed to the necessity to accustom to new market patterns and acknowledged that, despite his efforts, he did not consider the main structural transformations of investor behavior.
Ju highlighted that traditional bull cycles, where large holders or “whales” sell to retail investors, are no longer the prevailing pattern. Instead, older large holders are now offloading their assets to newer, long-term institutional holders. This shift, he said, marks the end of the classic retail-driven bull cycle and points to a more stable ownership structure dominated by institutions and treasury-backed entities.
Contrasting Views From Other Analysts
While Ju has moved away from traditional cycle models, other analysts continue to support them. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity recently stated that Bitcoin still closely mirrors its four-year cycle pattern. This contrast underscores a growing divide in how experts interpret current market trends and future projections.
