- Bitcoin historically rallies 133 to 140 days after DXY downturns, and current market signals point to a breakout by late May 2025.
- Every DXY drop since 2016 triggered immediate Gold rallies and delayed Bitcoin surges, confirming a consistent cyclical pattern.
- Gold’s continued rise and DXY weakness in 2025 signal a familiar setup that previously led to explosive Bitcoin bull runs.
Bitcoin could be on the brink of another explosive rally as historical cycles re-emerge across major financial markets. According to a recent nine-year comparative analysis of the DXY (US Dollar Index), Gold, and Bitcoin, inverse correlations continue to guide macro trends. The data reveals a consistent pattern: each time the dollar index weakens, Gold surges almost immediately.
Bitcoin, while slower to react, follows with a powerful uptrend roughly 133 to 140 days later. With the DXY now correcting from its 2022-2023 highs, and both Gold and Bitcoin showing strength, historical timing suggests Bitcoin’s next leg higher could begin by late May 2025.
Historical Cycles Show Predictable Moves
The data spans from 2016 to 2025 and highlights repeatable market behavior. The DXY, currently at 100.036, reflects a weakening U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Gold trades at $3,240.610 and continues its multi-year climb. Bitcoin, now at $95,898, has resumed its recovery after a recent correction.
Source: Sekodelic
Moreover, every major DXY downtrend over this period triggered two predictable events. First, Gold rallied almost instantly. Second, Bitcoin surged approximately 133 days later. This lag is not random. It has appeared consistently across three key phases, each marked as “19 bars, 133d.” Consequently, if the pattern holds again, Bitcoin’s next true breakout aligns with the end of May 2025. That gives bulls a very narrow window to prepare.
Inverse Correlation Strengthens Bitcoin’s Outlook
Besides timing, the inverse relationship between DXY and both Bitcoin and Gold remains the most critical insight. Red ovals show every phase where the dollar weakened. Each instance also saw both alternative assets gain significant momentum.
Additionally, green ovals highlight moments where both Gold and Bitcoin pushed higher together. Notably, Bitcoin always followed Gold’s lead—never the other way around. This confirms Bitcoin as a secondary mover in dollar-driven macro cycles. Hence, the current setup mirrors past bull cycles almost exactly. All three assets still follow their core tendencies: DXY cycles, Gold’s steady climb, and Bitcoin’s explosive growth.
