- Bloomberg places Avalanche ETF approval odds at 75%, with DOGE at 80%, reflecting growing confidence in altcoin ETF launches.
- Solana’s ETF proposal sees active prediction trading, with approval odds ranging from 83% to 91% on Polymarket.
- The SEC has delayed five pending crypto ETFs, including XRP and ETH staking proposals, extending timelines into late 2025.
The probability of altcoin ETFs gaining regulatory approval in 2025 is rising, according to data from Bloomberg and Polymarket. Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin lead the pack with some of the highest chances for launch. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reports that Avalanche ETFs hold the lowest estimated approval odds at 75 percent, while Dogecoin follows with an 80 percent probability.
The Solana ETF is one of the most traded on Polymarket, showing fluctuating approval odds between 83% and 91%. These figures remain slightly lower than Bloomberg’s projected 90 percent but indicate sustained investor interest. Volumes for this market have reached approximately $142,000.
The application pipeline includes major firms
Most of the ETF proposals have been submitted by firms already managing Bitcoin and Ethereum products. A total of 72 applications cover smaller altcoins, many of which are still in early stages or awaiting form completion. XRP has 19 ETF filings under review, making it one of the most active assets in the pipeline.
Despite the positive odds, ETF approvals have faced repeated delays. The U.S. SEC postponed decisions on several funds, including Franklin Templeton’s XRP spot ETF and multiple Ethereum Staking ETFs. In total, five funds were recently delayed for additional review.
Staking functionality emerges in new ETF models
A growing number of fund proposals now include staking for eligible tokens such as Ethereum and Solana. This feature could reshape the ETF landscape by offering passive yield options, although it may invite stricter regulatory scrutiny.
Most filings continue to focus on assets with prior market cycles, including Cardano, Litecoin, and XRP. Despite their presence in the ETF conversation, meme or niche token applications such as Polkadot and Hedera Hashgraph retain significantly lower approval odds.
Historical trends suggest that ETF approvals may not immediately boost asset prices. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum saw muted performance after their respective fund launches. Still, the rising volume of applications signals persistent institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure.
