- Bitcoin’s realized P/L ratio below 1 reflects cautious sentiment and rising losses despite BTC holding above $60,000 in early 2025.
- Profit-taking momentum has weakened since mid-2024, with the P/L ratio failing to exceed +2 STDV, signaling reduced market euphoria.
- Recurring dips below 1.0 in the P/L ratio highlight a transitional phase marked by uncertainty, stress, and potential accumulation behavior.
According to analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss (P/L) ratio has once again slipped below the 1.0 mark, signaling investor caution. This level reflects that most holders are currently realizing losses. While this does not suggest full capitulation, it highlights a phase of doubt. The current structure mirrors patterns from 2024. However, the market may not follow the same trajectory. BTC continues to trade above $60,000, yet selling pressure is mounting. Investor sentiment remains fragile as the realized P/L ratio drops beneath a critical threshold.
Market Behavior Reflects Accumulation and Stress
Besides marking potential bottoms, the P/L ratio under 1.0 often aligns with accumulation phases. Between early 2022 and mid-2023, Bitcoin struggled to stay above $30,000. During that time, panic selling was frequent. Realized losses dominated, as indicated by repeated dips in the P/L ratio. Red circles on the chart mark these key stress points. Each of these periods coincided with temporary price consolidations or local bottoms.
However, the narrative shifted in early 2023. Bitcoin broke above the $30,000 resistance. The P/L ratio spiked above 2.0 several times from April 2023 to April 2024. These surges marked phases of profit-taking and strong market momentum. Moreover, price rallies often followed. Every time the ratio hit +4 standard deviation (STDV) from the 365-day moving average, a local top formed shortly after. Corrections followed swiftly, signaling temporary cooling-off periods during bullish runs.
Profit-Taking Weakens as Sentiment Turns Cautious
From mid-2024, the ratio gradually declined. By early 2025, it fell below 1.0 multiple times. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price held above $60,000. Hence, weakening profit realization indicates increasing hesitation among holders. Additionally, the absence of spikes above +2 STDV since early 2024 suggests reduced euphoria.
Realized profits led the market recovery in 2023. That trend reversed as the ratio stayed under 1.0 throughout early 2025. Consequently, this shift reflects broader market unease and limited upside conviction. The realized P/L ratio remains a vital sentiment indicator. Its current position below 1.0 reinforces the idea of a transitional phase. Investors now face a market lacking strong conviction. Whether this leads to accumulation or deeper correction remains to be seen.
